NRL

JT’s Succinct NRL Tips: Round 26, 2024

Random fact – Today marks 25 years since foundation clubs Western Suburbs and Balmain played their last games as standalone First Grade clubs before being merged into the Wests Tigers.

Fun fact, the bloke with Laurie Nichols is James Webster, the brother of New Zealand Warriors coach Andrew Webster

On August 29, 1999, Balmain lost 42-14 in Canberra, having played their last game at Leichhardt a fortnight earlier (They defeated Parramatta 20-10), while Wests were blown out 60-16 by the Auckland Warriors in Campbelltown having already won the wooden spoon… It was also Balmain fanatic Laurie Nichols’ last game before he died of a ruptured stomach ulcer aged 81 in February of 2000.

I would throw North Sydney in there for last games, seeing as their last game as the North Sydney Bears was the day earlier (They won 28-18 against North Queensland in Townsville) before they created the Northern Eagles with Manly, but I’ll hold my tongue seeing as the Bears name is destined for a comeback after a generation of hibernation.

On we go to Round 26, because the season is just too damn long and will seemingly only get longer, and a mere 2 weeks after they faced losing top spot to Penrith in the 2nd Half at Panthers Stadium, the Melbourne Storm have secured the J.J. Giltinan Shield as minor premiers for 2024 with 2 games in hand, a fifth minor premiership in the last 15 seasons for Craig Bellamy’s super consistent team, and they’ve immediately decided to reap the benefits that come with comfortably winning a minor premiership…

By resting 11 players for the trip to Townsville to play the Cowboys, given they had a 5-day backup and faced the longest road trip in First Grade.

Some people can claim that there’s an inherent danger in resting players (The team losing momentum & form in the finals being the argument, which happened to the Storm in 2011), but the Storm have done mass resting successfully in recent years (2020), as have the Panthers (2022), and to a lesser extent the Brisbane Broncos last year, who basically sacrificed the minor premiership by resting players so they could get revenge on the Storm the next week and go to on to the Grand Final.

On the flip side, a mere 2 weeks after being a win away from claiming top spot, the Panthers have plummeted to 4th on points differential behind the Sydney Roosters and Cronulla after that stunning upset against the Canberra Raiders on Saturday, capped off by the Timoko/Savage intercept try in the last 10 minutes, leaving The Riff up to their necks in shit as they now face the prospect of having to play in Melbourne against the Storm in Week 1 of the Finals in the quest for the Fourpeat, although that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, given a defeat would leave them in the same half as the Roosters and Sharks (As it stands), who simply wet themselves when they face the Panthers.

Still, there is also an extremely slim chance The Riff could miss the Top 4, given the Bulldogs are only a game and 12 points worse off on Points Differential, but the only way any of this has any chance of happening is if the Panthers cop an almighty upset from either the Rabbitohs or Titans in Penrith over the next fortnight and the Bulldogs win both games..

That said, the Bulldogs are a much more likely prospect of sewing up 5th place than the Panthers are of losing 4th.

Of course, after that the North Queensland Cowboys look like they’ll sew up 6th spot barring a disaster, Manly would have to choke like Bon Scott to drop out given they’re 3 points clear of 8th spot, which leaves us with the epic 5-way fight to decide the last spot in the Top 8:

– The Dragons currently hold 8th with 11 wins despite being punched in the mouth by the Sharks last week, although if they lose another game to the Eels or Raiders their points differential (-120) will leave them up the creek and at the mercy of the chasing pack, such is the price you pay for repeated arse whippings.

– The Broncos and Dolphins sit just outside in 9th and 10th, although guess which two local rivals happen to be playing each other this Saturday, which will rule one of them out for good… although, Kevin Walters said after last Friday’s game that there was no if or buts and that the Broncos would be featuring in the finals, so he’d better put his money where his mouth is.

– The Knights are still alive after a year riddled by injuries to key personnel, but like several other teams would need everything to go right, but they do get 2 home games to end the year, first up against the Titans and then the Dolphins next weekend.

– And the Canberra Raiders are still there thanks to that massive upset against Penrith last week, but they have the same problem the Dragons have in regard to woeful Points Differential (-131), and they don’t have wins on their side either… so once again, very unlikely, but they do play the Dragons next week, so it’s not impossible.

Now, on to the Round 26 fixture, as the Wests Tigers get the bye and a crucial 2 points to set up Spoonbowl next week against the Eels:


– The North Queensland Cowboys get a massive free hit in their pursuit of the finals as they host the Melbourne Storm without the Elite Eight; Jahrome Hughes, Harry Grant, Will Warbrick, Jack Howarth, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Shawn Blore, Eli Katoa and Tui Kamikamica are all resting up in the deep south, with the only regular Storm starters being Ryan Papenhuyzen, Christian Welch and Cameron Munster due to their long term injury stints.

Another odd note – If the Cowboys do go on and win the game, it will give them wins over the Storm (1st), Roosters (2nd), Sharks (3rd), Panthers (4th), Bulldogs (5th), Sea Eagles (7th) and Dragons (8th) this year… obviously the circumstances of those wins are varying, but that’s a set of wins even the Storm can’t claim.

– Another massive fixture as Canterbury hosts Manly at the Olympic Stadium in Tom Trbojevic’s 150th NRL game, and the Berries are now locked in for a return to the Finals after years of turmoil and not without a hope of a Top 4 finish, while the Sea Eagles are still reeling from having their pants stolen by the Wests Tigers at Leichhardt, which will seemingly end their hopes of a Brookvale final in Week One if the Cowboys win and the Bulldogs get them on Friday night…

And they didn’t even get that $750,000 back from Tommy Turbo after the NRL closed that loophole before it was completely opened.

– The Channel 9 Friday night game has Penrith hosting South Sydney at Panthers Stadium, as the Panthers find themselves at a crossroads they haven’t been at for well over 4 years, while Souths have to face another night staring at white lines after the Latrell Mitchell punishment was handed down, but if Souths really wanted to take the piss they should also mass rest their players, seeing as they can’t win the wooden spoon and can’t get any higher than 13th…. it’s not like it could go any worse than fielding their best available team, surely.

– Clinging on to that 8th spot, St George-Illawarra face a trap game on Saturday afternoon as Parramatta try desperately to avoid the wooden spoon not even 2 years after playing in a Grand Final, although even if the Eels lose then the circumstances for next Friday don’t change too much, other than the fact that a win this Saturday gives them the chance to draw and avoid the spoon.

– The latest edition of the Brisbane Derby gets a weird Saturday 5:30 timeslot as one of the Redcliffe Dolphins or the Brisbane Broncos will have their season ended by their crosstown rival at Suncorp Stadium, with the Broncos still holding a 3-0 advantage over the Dolphins as Corey Oates and Payne Haas get confined to the reserves list by Kevvie Walters, while Wayne Bennett would like to try and put his entire team on the reserve list to try and get them out of their massive form slump.

– The Cronulla Sharks still have 2nd spot to play for as they host the New Zealand Warriors in The Shire, in what will be the Warriors’ last game for 2024, and after 14 seasons it’s also the last game of Shaun Johnson’s NRL career, and a week after his Mt Smart farewell he gets to play it at the other stadium he used to call home for 3 years (2019-21) in Shark Park.

– The Newcastle Knights somehow still have an actual chance of playing Finals in 2024, and the ball is completely in their court as they finish off with 2 home games, the first of which is the Sunday game against the Gold Coast Titans, who are pretty much playing to see how many tries they can feed to Alofiana Khan-Pereira to get him the Ken Irvine Medal (Currently leading with 23), and an odd note is that this game will mark 5 years and 1 day since the Knights played the Titans in Newcastle, a game that was Bradman Best’s first game in Newcastle.

True story.

– The Channel 9 Sunday game has the Sydney Roosters hosting the Canberra Raiders at the SFS, a game featuring the two most recent Roosters premiership coaches (Trent Robinson and Ricky Stuart), as Jared Waerea-Hargreaves once again tried to end his career without a farewell game as he copped another 3 game suspension for a high hit last weekend on the Gold Coast (Funnily enough, JWH clobbered his old teammate Sam Verrills), and who the hell knows which Raiders team will turn up, because they could easily get absolutely obliterated by the Roosters’ attack (As they did in Canberra in Round 12), or they could somehow turn it into trench warfare and win by 2 points.

And now for the Round 26 tips, here we go…

Round 25 Score = 6/8

Running score after Round 25 = 120/188 (63.8%)


Lock of the Week

If the North Queensland RHINESTONE COWBOYS can’t win tonight against a team resting 8 damn players, then lock them up and throw them in the Pacific Ocean.

On that note, here’s GLEN CAMPBELL!

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