NRL

JT’s Succinct NRL Tips: 2024 Grand Final

Another successful Dally M night for the Melbourne Storm and Craig ‘Beetlejuice’ Bellamy

Please note, this was from 2019

Another top notch night at the Dally M Awards, as Roosters forward Olivia Kernick won the NRLW Dally M Medal to go with a potential NRLW premiership medal this Sunday, Jahrome Hughes joined the Dally M Medal winners list after his superb back half to 2024, making the Storm the club with the most Dally M Medal wins (6), and more success for Melbourne came when Craig Bellamy was awarded Coach of the Year for the 7th time, extending a record he already had a mortgage on, Harry Grant was the Hooker of the Year, and Eliesa Katoa was there in the Second Rowers of the Year.

It turned out that despite Hughes being the overwhelming favourite, the count was a lot closer than expected, as Hughes and James Tedesco were split by just 1 point going into Round 27, but it turned out both players polled maximum votes in their last games (Hughes for his hat-trick, Tedesco with 2 tries and 2 try assists), so Hughes became only the fourth New Zealander to win the Dally M Medal, joining Roger Tuivasa-Scheck in 2018, Jason Taumalolo in 2016, and Gary Freeman in 1992, who was the last Kiwi half to win the award…

And he got an impromptu Haka from his countrymen to celebrate the moment, just as RTS received when he won the award 6 years ago.

The other major piece of news outside of the awards night was the rather stunning development of Michael Maguire going from having a cushy gig as New South Wales coach to signing with the Brisbane Broncos as the successor of Kevin Walters, all in the space of 4 days:

Amazing how that Broncos coaching saga started with Walters going from being relatively safe last Wednesday to getting abruptly sacked on a Thursday night, then by the following Tuesday, Madge is in the building at Red Hill signed sealed and delivered, and judging by this year’s Origin results, losing Madge is going to harm New South Wales much more than it harms the Broncos, who will have some seriously bruised egos once Madge is done with them, for better or worse.

For all the doom about him, Madge’s record backs itself up – He won a Super League with Wigan, remains the only South Sydney premiership coach in the last 50 years (Even if it did end with him getting sacked), coached New Zealand and handed Australia their greatest defeat in international rugby league (30-0), then in his New South Wales stint came from a game down to win the deciding Game III in Brisbane, something the Blues hadn’t done for 19 years.

Heck, the only stint Madge has ever really failed in across all his tenures was the Wests Tigers, who became an even bigger basket case after he was dismissed and won a hat-trick of wooden spoons.

Now, more importantly, there’s one last club game to roll through in season 2024, and it was the matchup we all deserved between the two best teams with the two outstanding coaches to match, and quite simply put, this is the most important game of Australian first grade rugby league in the 21st Century, because one of these clubs will become the first to win 5 legal premierships in the NRL era, and on top of that, one of them could complete the greatest rugby league achievement most of us have been alive to witness.

Of course, the last time a team came this close to a fourpeat prior to Penrith was the 1984 Eels, and much like these Panthers, the Eels made it all the way to the last game of the season, but lost 4-6 to Warren Ryan’s Canterbury Bulldogs, aka the Dogs of War, in one of the most brutal Grand Finals ever played.

In the purple corner there’s the Melbourne Storm, the modern day Ship of Theseus, rolling into an 11th Grand Final in 27 seasons, 4 of which aren’t quite legal, and out of everything that Craig Bellamy has achieved in the game, including turning Brenko Lee into a State of Origin player, I genuinely believe that stopping the Panthers dynasty not once, but twice, would be his crowning achievement in the game… he’s already done what no other coach has been able to achieve (In 2020), despite Wayne Bennett and Kevin Walters coming close, and to do it again would be the stuff of legend.

It’d also mean Bellyache would pull a large monkey off the back by winning a premiership without Cameron Smith, which is probably the one big knock on the master coach.

And in the pink corner there’s the Penrith Panthers, now holding the outright First Grade record of 11 consecutive Finals wins, standing one win away from the greatest achievement that modern rugby league has seen, a Premiership FOURPEAT, an achievement unfulfilled since limited tackle sets were introduced in 1967 to stop the St George 11 consecutive premiership dynasty, a time when Jack Gibson was in his first season as a head coach, Clive Churchill had only just retaken the Souths job with immediate success, and when colour TV was still a twinkle in our eyes.

It seems amazing to think that even 5 years ago, simply repeating as premiers in the current NRL was an achievement that was nigh on impossible, as so many great teams had tried and failed to do what hadn’t been achieved in a unified competition since the Brisbane Broncos in 1992-93, among them numerous great Manly, Storm (Although at least 2 of them were illegal), Roosters and Broncos teams, and then the 2018-19 Roosters completed the feat, breaking the ice for the Panthers a few short years later.

The Threepeat in 2023 is/was a heck of an achievement, but a Fourpeat defies reality, especially in an era of equality and parity, with the system of the salary cap + free player movement designed to actively designed to stop teams from winning more than 1 premiership, and both of these teams are a testament to bucking that system.

Of course, there’s also the individual storylines, such as Ivan Cleary and Craig Bellamy matching wits again, the apparent beef between Liam Martin and Cameron Munster based on nothing more than state loyalty, the Panthers not forgetting Jahrome Hughes’ comment about Mount Druitt after the 2020 Grand Final, Nathan Cleary playing superbly while seeming one bad hit away from a destroyed shoulder, Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris playing in their last games for Penrith after appearing in all 3 previous premierships plus the 2020 Grand Final, a Storm favourite in former captain Christian Welch looking gone, the Wishart family might finally win a premiership through the Storm’s Tyrone Wishart, 25 years after Rod Wishart lost a Grand Final to the Storm…

And of course, the 5-game suspension to Nelson Asofa-Solomona for belting Lindsay Collins on the opening play of the Preliminary Final, concussing Collins so badly he did a Martin Bella and played the ball the wrong way, which also gave NAS a rather cheap 10 in the bin while the Chooks lost one of their best front rowers and subsequently got demolished…

People say it’s harsh to get 5 games before a Grand Final, but I call bullshit – When you repeatedly get involved in incidents like the one NAS inflicted on Collins, you’re always half a chance of copping it from the match review… The only harsh element of it was getting 5 games for an incident that should’ve been a 2-game suspension, and the NRL’s hypocrisy with flexible suspensions, but once again, when you build up a track record of on-field incidents, you’re going to leave yourself open to the wrath of the MRC.

It was the sort of crap Jared Waerea-Hargreaves pulled routinely as was often punished for by the end of his career – If NAS was allowed off that incident to play in a decider, then the Grand Final would have everything short of chair shots on key players… Nathan Cleary would also get a Stone Cold Stunner from Christian Welch.

At the end of the day, NAS should’ve just done a Billy Slater and fly kicked Collins, then he would’ve been let off.

Now, time for one lucky last Succinct Tip of the NRL season, as the Panthers gun for the Fourpeat, and I gun for back-to-back… Finals series unbeaten on the tips, as the relatively predictable results have given me 8/8 thus far, after going 9/9 last year…

I think I wrote a couple of weeks ago that the last Final I picked incorrectly was the 2022 Prelim between the Cowboys and Eels, which would now make it 19 consecutive correct Finals tips.

Preliminary Finals score = 2/2

Running score after the Semi Finals = 136/212 (64.1%)


Grand Final Lock of the Week

Because when you’re right 52% of the time, you’re wrong 48% of the time

It started with crap in Las Vegas, and it’s going to end with crap in Australia’s Sin City.

It’ll be a defensive death match as neither team gives an inch, with a pace of play akin to an Origin game..

YOU KNOW WHAT, STUFF IT, I WANT TO SEE SOME HISTORY BEFORE MY BLOODY EYES.

THE PINK PANTHERS TO FOURPEAT.

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