NRL

JT’s Succinct NRL Tips: Round 15, 2025

If Queensland need a decent kicker after Game I, there’s a new candidate… Josh Papalii

We’re in the build-up to Origin II as everyone prepares to go west to Optus Stadium once again like the Village People and the Pet Shop Boys of old, and the news has now filtered through that in addition to Mitch Barnett’s ACL tear a few weeks ago, Mitchell Moses won’t be playing for New South Wales in Perth due to a calf injury, which seems like a straight forward recall for Jarome Luai, because apparently Matt Burton is married to the No.18 jersey…

While north of Tweed Heads, all the talk is about Maroons captain Daly Cherry-Evans, the oldest player in Origin history, getting unceremoniously knifed and dropped from the team by his coach & former teammate Billy Slater, with Tom Dearden now the No.7 and Cameron Munster the captain, which means the Maroons kicking game is looking a fair bit patchy, especially with newly minted goalkicker Josh Papalii no longer playing rep football.

What a cheap scapegoat for the fact that Billy’s forwards got absolutely whipped by the New South Wales forward pack in Game I.

Of course, DCE is far from the first Origin captain to be dropped during a series:

Paul ‘Fatty’ Vautin captained Queensland in Game I of the 1990 series at the SFS when Wally Lewis tore his hamstring in the pre-game, New South Wales went on to win 8-0, Fatty was dropped by Arthur Beetson for Game II in Melbourne and never added to his 22 Queensland appearances… Fatty later paid it forward and dropped a captain when he coached the Maroons.

‘The Axe’ Trevor Gillmeister captained Queensland during the fabled sweep of 1995 and retained the gig for Game I of the 1996 series at Lang Park, which New South Wales went on to win 14-6, after which The Axe was dropped by Fatty Vautin for Game II in Sydney and never represented the Maroons again, retiring at the end of 1996… like Fatty, The Axe made 22 appearances for the Maroons.

And there’s also the honourable mentions, starting with Blues captain James Tedesco getting the arse by Michael Maguire prior to Game I of last year’s series, only to get one last cameo in that same Game I when Dylan Edwards hurt himself in Origin camp, with the Blues going on to lose badly in part due to a send-off, after which Edwards debuted in Game II and retained his spot…

Although, it must be noted that Jake Trbojevic was the captain for Game I and that 2024 series, and at this stage it looks like Jake might be joining Teddy considering he had that ill-timed concussion before Game I of this year and can’t crack the team for Game II.

There’s also the case of Kurt Gidley as NSW captain during the ill-fated 2010 series, getting dropped to the bench as captain for Game II before the captaincy was given to Trent Barrett for Game III (Paul Gallen got the gig in 2011), and there’s also a couple of other captains who never played Origin again after missing Game III, among them Ray Price (Game II 1984), Steve Mortimer (Game II 1985), who oddly never played Origin again after captaining the winning 1985 series, and Kevin Walters (Game II, 1999), who was injured for Game III and missed his proper representative farewell game.

Still, history is against Munster, because there is a stat that of the 9 Queensland captains whose first game as captain was away from Suncorp, only 2 have been in a winning team – Vautin in Game I of 1988, and the last was Gillmeister in Game I of 1995.

And that list includes Mal Meninga, Kevvie Walters, Alfie Langer, Darren Lockyer, Shane Webcke, Cameron Smith and Greg Inglis.

On another note, there is still a handful of club games this weekend, and I am deadset shitting myself because I conjured up 0/5 during the Origin I club games:

– Cronulla host St George-Illawarra at Shark Park on Thursday night, a poor time for a Southern Derby with it being an Origin week, and it’s a good thing the Sharks have a sea creature for a mascot, because their season is deadset drowning week after week, getting absolutely whipped in their last 2 games… still, they’re somehow in 5th on the ladder.

– The Titans host Manly on the Gold Coast on Friday night in the Des Hasler grudge match, and you couldn’t tip the Titans with stolen money after what the Broncos did to them on Saturday night, while Manly get the enormous luxury of having Tom Trbojevic, Jake Trbojevic and DCE in the starting 13 during an Origin club round… so it’ll be funny if they get smashed again.

– Newcastle host the Sydney Roosters in the Hunter on Saturday evening, as the Knights went from booing their own team at half time to somehow coming back to defeat Manly in Golden Point, helping prolong Adam O’Brien’s stay in purgatory, and now they get to boo them again without Kalyn Ponga, while the Roosters have the welcome return of Sam Walker to First Grade rugby league, after tearing his ACL in Round 26 of last season, helping cover off the 5 players Easts lost to Origin duty.

– The Cowboys host the Dolphins in Townsville, and these Origin rounds are a deadset godsend for the Dolphins, after they got a weakened Bulldogs team before Origin I and won easily, and now after posting a half century for the first time in club history, they get a Cowboys team that have replaced half the starting 13… I think Kristian Woolf will be howling at the moon with delight by the end of the night.

– Souths host Canterbury at the Olympic Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as both teams have key players on Origin duty (Latrell Mitchell, Stephen Crichton, Max King and Matt Burton), but the signing of Lachie Galvin during times like an Origin round is looking pretty solid for the Berries, because he can slot straight into the Five Eighth spot in place of Burton, and here’s a stat the Bulldogs would like to end sometime soon, they haven’t done the double on the Rabbitohs since 2011, which was the year BEFORE the clubs started their annual Good Friday game.

So all that said, time for the tips:

Round 14 score = 6/8

Progressive Score = 58/108 (53.7%)


Adn finally, a preview for Saturday night, courtesy of The Simpsons

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