NRL

JT’s Succinct NRL Tips: Round 16, 2025

On to Round 16 we go off the back of an almighty Origin II contest in a soggy Perth, a classic game of two halves as the Cameron Munster-led Maroons walked on water to lead 26-6 at the half, then the weather improved and the Blues rocketed back with 4 tries to none to close within 2 points, but after Brian To’o got taken down a few metres short of what would’ve been a fourth try of the night to win the series, the Maroons held tough to force the decider in Sydney in 3 weeks’ time, and once again the goalkicking of New South Wales cost them dearly as they scored 5 tries to 4 but still lost the match thanks to Zac Lomax (Who took the kicking tee due to Nathan Cleary’s groin injury) kicking 2/5, also missing a 2-point field goal before the half, and giving away a cheap 2 points thanks to a needless elbow on Trent Loiero that got him a fine.

By comparison, Valentine Holmes kicked 5/5, including a couple of sideline kicks that were deadset arrows of the boot.

In a way it was shades of Game I of the 1998 series at the old SFS, in which New South Wales also scored 5 tries to 4 but lost 24-23 due to Andrew Johns kicking 1/5 in front of goal, with Queensland capitalising on mistakes and ultimately winning thanks to a last minute try to Tonie Carroll that Darren Lockyer (on debut) converted to go 4/4 in front of goal… the Maroons ultimately won that series in an upset, the first of only 3 series to date in which neither team won a match in their own state (The others being 2009 and 2024).

Another interesting note is that this game was the first State of Origin game in which the losing team scored more tries since Game I of the 2005 series, in which Queensland won 24-20 in Golden Point (Matt Bowen intercepting Brett Kimmorley) with 3 tries and 5 goals (Cameron Smith went 5/5), while New South Wales scored 4 tries with 2 of them converted, having come from 19-0 down to briefly lead 20-19.

But yep, after getting absolutely bashed around by the Blues forward pack in Game I, and after Billy Slater had to deal with that mud flinging match with Aaron Woods in the media that saw Paul Green’s name brought up, the Maroons caught a gap in the weather, ironically while it pissed down, used their ascendancy to full effect, although still, if they were a golfer they’d have carded 8 under up the front nine holes, then carded 7 over down the back nine to escape at one under par… sometimes you don’t even remember the 8 under.

Another note I’d make is that I was a bit iffy on Cameron Munster getting MOTM, considering he went missing for the last 20 minutes… considering their impacts over the entire 80 minutes, it should’ve been Kurt Capewell or Reuben Cotter, whose work in defence was outstanding.

Anyway, that game will have the eyeballs picked out of it for a few days yet, so here’s the look at club football for Round 16, with Canterbury, Manly and St George getting the bye and the cheap 2 points:

– The Wests Tigers host the rampaging Green Machine of Canberra in Campbelltown on Friday night, with Ricky Stuart’s son Jed Stuart debuting on the wing as Raider No.404, and at this stage Jarome Luai will play off a 2 day break for the Tigers, while Benji Marshall wasn’t happy with the referees after the loss to Penrith a few weeks back, given they called 2 penalties against Luai that led to Panthers points, namely a supposed late tackle that led to a penalty goal, and an escort that led to the Panthers scoring the winning try with a final score of 18-14…

– The New Zealand Warriors host the continually recovering Penrith Panthers at Mt Smart, with Ivan Cleary making a sensible decision by not picking any of his Origin players, who would’ve been travelling from Perth to New Zealand off a 2.5 day break, while Kurt Capewell also won’t back up for the Warriors, and some interesting notes is that this’ll be Penrith’s first game in New Zealand since 2019, while the Warriors haven’t won consecutive games against the Panthers since 2011-12, which was the period when Ivan Cleary coached the Warriors in 2011, then jumped over for his first stint at Penrith in 2012.

– Fresh off the back of Origin II, the people of Perth get another dose of rugbaleeg as the Dolphins host the Newcastle Knights at HBF Park, and all we’re waiting to see if the Dolphins attack can fire on all 10 cylinders and produce another half century of points, and looking through the books, the last team to score 50+ points in 3 consecutive games was the 2001 Parramatta Eels (50 in Round 19, 54 in Round 20, 62 in Round 21), who still hold the record for the most points in a season.

Expect to see Mal Meninga at the game doing a bit of scouting for Perth Bears recruits in 2027, and if the Knights were smart they’d allow Kalyn Ponga to back up for the game, seeing as he’s already in Perth… in this tight economic environment, you’ve gotta save cash on air fares.

– South Sydney host the Melbourne Storm at Accor Stadium, with Craig Bellamy naming the Queensland contingent of Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Trent Loiero, Xavier Coates and Stefano Utoikamanu only a few days after he was trying to belt the shit out of them from the New South Wales coaching box, as Alex Johnston’s pursuit of Ken Irvine’s record is now down to just 10 tries, while Craig Bellamy is aiming to win his 15th consecutive match against Wayne Bennett, having last been defeated by his former master in Round 25 of 2016.

– Brisbane host Cronulla at Suncorp on Sunday afternoon, another interesting contest between two teams who have seemingly been stuck in fourth gear for good chunks of 2025, although they did both record victories against their local rivals (The Titans and Dragons) in their last games, which will no doubt have very little influence on Sunday.

– The Channel Nine Sunday game has the Sydney Roosters hosting the North Queensland Cowboys at the SFS, and we’ll once again have to wait to see Sam Walker back in the Easts 13 after he broke his thumb before the Newcastle game, although it appears the Chooks’ Origin players will front up on Sunday barring a disaster, while the Cowboys might look a bit more like a team this week after Jason Taumalolo was injured in the warm-up, and combine that with the loss of John Bateman and a gaggle of Origin stars, you get a 4-58 thumping at home, the worst defeat in Townsville in the Cows’ 30 year history, surpassing the 58-12 thumping from the Melbourne Storm in 2007.

– And the lucky last game of the weekend is the Sunday night game between Parramatta and the Gold Coast at Commbank, and what an appropriate timeslot for a game between 16th and 17th… Sunday, 6:15pm, with Dylan Brown and Mitch Moses both sidelined for the hosts, leaving a halves combination of Joash Papalii and Dean Hawkins… fans will no doubt ask Hawkins why he doesn’t use a wheelchair and a speech generator.

And now for the Succinct Round 16 Tips:

Round 15 score = 4/5

Progressive Score = 62/113 (54.9%)


And now for our random entertainment of the week, a sneak preview into the New Zealand Warriors post-game entertainment, courtesy of cult classic Once Were Warriors

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