NRL

JT’s Succinct NRL Tips: Round 20, 2025

Rugby League 26, now more authentic than ever with drug scandals, betting ads, criminal behaviour and salary cap cheating

As Paul Gallen and Sonny Bill Williams send boxing into the dark ages, we’re into the run for home now at Round 20, and this week two teams have fallen into the bad books with the Fourth Estate, primarily the Newcastle Knights as it appears Adam O’Brien’s days as coach are numbered with the Knights stuck in 13th and 3 wins out of the Top 8, needing a deadset miracle in the last 2 months of the season to make the finals, and the added effects of this latest shitstorm is that Kalyn Ponga may be pursuing an exit from the Hunter Valley despite being contracted until 2027, possibly to have a look at a rugby union career and pursue his dream of representing the All Blacks.

It’s probably not the worst thing in the world if O’Brien gets the arse, but that’s not to say he did a world of good considering he joined the Knights as they were still rebuilding after one of the worst runs any team has had in the NRL (3 consecutive wooden spoons and 6 straight years out of the finals), got them back into the Top 8 in his first year, and played finals in 4 out of 5 years prior to 2025, with the obvious problem being they won 1 of those 5 finals due to a gameplan and roster that couldn’t match it with the heavy hitters.

As for Ponga, he’s the best player the Knights have had since Andrew Johns retired, joined them when they were in the doldrums in 2018, yet they’re paying $1.4m a season for a bloke that gets injured for half the season, because he has so much expectation lumped on his shoulders by a fairly dodgy roster that his body inevitably pays the price.

It’s a vicious cycle… Ponga carries the team because most of them don’t cut the mustard in First Grade, and the team can’t cut the mustard because too much money is going to Ponga and they can’t invest in key positions.

Moving on, there was also the latest Seinfeld episode at St George-Illawarra, who had a total of five players (Out of 18) attend the 2010 premiership reunion on Saturday during the game against the Sydney Roosters, as a couple of player fallouts with the club still linger (Matt Cooper and Jamie Soward in particular), with the 5 players that actually turned up being Ben Creagh, Dean Young, Jason Nightingale, Michael Weyman and Dan Hunt… who wasn’t even in the Grand Final team that year.

First of all five players is incorrect, there were actually SIX players from the 2010 Dragons in attendance at Kogarah….

Because Brett Morris was in the Roosters’ coaching box.

Still, could be worse, could be that awards night they had in 2022 that had 3 players attend.

And finally, with the Titans ownership changing over to the Frizelle family last week, Ben and Shane Walker have put their hands up to fix the Gold Coast Titans if Des Hasler moves on, which would open the door for them to try an entice Sam Walker to the club and replace Kieran Foran + play for his father and uncle, although he wouldn’t play for the Titans until 2028 at the earliest….

And in great news for Queenslanders, Laurie Daley will coach New South Wales in 2026.

Now for a look at Round 20, as we get back to a full 8 games and the Brisbane Broncos get the bye:

– Another Queensland derby as the Dolphins play the North Queensland Cowboys at Suncorp, which should hopefully be a bit tighter than their game during the Origin bye rounds when the Dolphins won 58-4, and the team from Redcliffe really do need to work on their consistency if they want to play in the Finals.

– A 4-point game on Friday at 6pm with 9th-placed Cronulla hosting the 8th-placed Sydney Roosters at Shark Park, and this is just about the most important game of the round considering the winner will be in the Top 8 on Friday night and the loser on the outside… although, they could easily be both in the Top 8 if Manly lose by a cricket score to the Melbourne Storm.

Also on tryscoring watch… Daniel Tupou needs 2 tries to tie Brett Morris on 176 and move into the Top 5 all-time.

– The feature Channel Nine Friday night game has Penrith hosting Souths at Commbank Stadium, as the Panthers are now absolutely rolling into the Finals and Souths are absolutely rolling towards the wooden spoon, which would be a historic low that Wayne Bennett has never achieved in half a century of coaching.

– The Canberra Raiders, top of the ladder, host Parramatta in the capital on Saturday afternoon, and this should be a regulation 2 points for the Green Machine, although their recent wins have all been within 1 score, so they’ll inevitably keep the Eels close.

– The former eternal rivals Canterbury and St George-Illawarra play at Accor Stadium, as the Lachie Galvin at halfback saga keeps rolling on as he’s now been named to start at No.7, here’s two interesting stats – The Dragons haven’t won at Accor Stadium, and Viliame Kikau is 8-0 against the Red V.

– Melbourne host Manly at AAMI Park, with the Sea Eagles not having won in Melbourne since the Golden Point win of 2019, and the Storm are right in the hunt for the minor premiership and a Top 2 spot with the best variance in the league, so expect them to try and kill the outmatched Silvertails… also this is also a big one because it’ll be Cameron Munster’s first game for the Storm since his dad passed.

– The Wests Tigers host the Gold Coast at Leichhardt, the Tigers being one of the few teams the Titans have a good record against, and there’s some history in this because it’s the merged Wests Tigers’ 100th game at Leichhardt, the resting ground of the Balmain Tigers, and if the Tigers do win it’ll be the first time they’ve had consecutive wins against the Titans since 2012… yep.

It’s also a nice symmetry of the merged Tigers playing their 100th game at Leichhardt, because their 100th game at Campbelltown was back in Round 16.

– And the last game of the round is the Channel 9 Sunday game featuring the Newcastle Knights and the New Zealand Warriors in the Hunter, and after all the shit in the press about the Knights this week they will desperately need to find something big in Bradman Best’s 100th game, and the Warriors got themselves back in order last week to get their first win since early June, which still leaves them only a win off Canterbury and the Melbourne Storm.

Funnily enough, both teams have horrible records at McDonald Jones Stadium of late… the Knights have lost 7 out of their last 8 at home, and the Warriors haven’t won there since 2019.

And now the Round 20 tips:

Dolphins by 20 points because the Cowboys can’t defend.

Round 19 score = 6/7

Progressive Score = 83/140 (59.3%)


And now, here’s a look at the Cowboys’ game plan against the Dolphins tonight:

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