Featuring the MAGIC IFs.

Both the 2024 Grand Finalists scored 14.11-95 in their winning Preliminary Finals.

This is the first all non-Victorian Grand Final since the epic 2006 Grand Final between the Sydney Swans and the West Coast Eagles, the first Grand Final to feature two teams based north of the Murray River..

And, both teams played each other in a Grand Final in previous life, when South Melbourne played Fitzroy (Long before they were known as the Lions) in the 1899 VFL Grand Final, which The Roys won by a point to become the first club to ever win back to back premierships, in one of only 4 Grand Finals decided by 1 point, the last of course being the aforementioned 2006 Grand Final.

Another odd fact about that 1899 game is that ‘The Big Ship’ Warwick Armstrong, who later captained the Australian cricket team to the only Ashes whitewash of the 20th Century (1920-21), played for Souths that day, playing in the ruck and down back.

This is the first Grand Final since 1995 (Carlton vs Geelong) to feature the two most recent Grand Final runner-ups, Sydney losing in 2022, and Brisbane losing in 2023.

It’s also the first final between Sydney and Brisbane since the 2003 Preliminary Final at what was then Telstra Stadium, in which the Lions, after leading by a mere 3 points at 3/4 time, kicked 6 goals to none in the final quarter to win by 44 points, going on to win their third consecutive premiership… Nigel Lappin rather famously suffered a broken rib during the game, but played out the game and the Grand Final.

Further to it, Fitzroy’s last finals win prior to the merger with the Brisbane Bears was against the Sydney Swans, a 5-point win in the 1986 Semi Final at the MCG, with the Lions’ team featuring Nick Blakey’s father John and future Swans premiership coach Paul Roos – That finals series was also the Swans’ first since relocating to Sydney.

The Swans’ first Grand Final after relocating to Sydney (1996) was played on September 28, while Brisbane’s second premiership (2002) was won on September 28… Saturday will be the first time either team has played on September 28 since those Grand Finals.

One of Josh Dunkley (Brisbane) or James Jordon (Sydney) will become the 32nd player to win a premiership at 2 clubs – Dunkley played in the Western Bulldogs’ 2016 premiership against the Swans, and Jordon was the unused medical sub in Melbourne’s 2021 premiership against the Bulldogs.

Also, one of Will Ashcroft (Brisbane) or Nick Blakey (Sydney) will also join the list of Father/Son premiership winners – Blakey’s father John played in North Melbourne’s 1996 and 1999 premierships, and Will’s father Marcus played in all 3 of Brisbane’s premierships (2001, 2002, 2003).

The Sydney Swans

Grand Final Day will mark exactly 5 months since the Swans’ last game at the MCG (Round 7 vs Hawthorn), the longest gap between MCG appearances for a Grand Finalist in the 21st Century – The previous longest run between MCG appearances before a Grand Final was the 2012 Swans, who hadn’t played at the MCG since May 12 (Round 7 vs Richmond) prior to the Grand Final win against Hawthorn on September 29, 2012.

The Swans have kept up their streak of making the Grand Final every time they win the minor premiership, this being their 10th minor premiership across South Melbourne and Sydney, although their last premiership as minor premiers was in 1918, losing their last 6 Grand Finals as minor premiers (1935, 1936, 1945, 1996, 2014, 2016).

With Patrick Cripps winning a second Brownlow on Monday night, in every year that a Carlton player won the Brownlow Medal, the minor premier won the Grand Final; Carlton 1947 (Bert Deacon), Hawthorn 1961 (John James), Melbourne 1964 (Gordon Collis), West Coast 1994 (Greg Williams), Collingwood 2010 (Chris Judd), Geelong 2022 (Patrick Cripps)… the Swans were minor premiers in 2024.

Luke Parker is set to become the first player to play in 5 Grand Finals for the Sydney Swans (2012, 2014, 2016, 2022, 2024) since the relocation to Sydney in 1982… Vic Belcher, Herbie Matthews and Laurie Nash all played in 5 Grand Finals for Souths.

If the Swans win, Parker (The only survivor from the 2012 premiership) would become only the 6th player to win multiple premierships for the Swans, joining Belcher and former premiership teammates Jude Bolton, Adam Goodes, Ryan O’Keefe and Lewis Roberts-Thomson (2005 & 2012).

If the Swans win, then factoring in their Round 3 loss to wooden spooners Richmond, then it would mark the first league season since 1992 in which the wooden spooner defeated the eventual Premier during the season – In Round 2 of ’92, the Swans themselves defeated eventual premiers West Coast by 3 points at the SCG.

With their 112-point defeat to Port Adelaide in Round 21, the Swans can become only the second team in league history to win a premiership after losing a game by 100+ points, joining Carlton in 1945, who lost to Essendon by exactly 100 points at Windy Hill in Round 3, before defeating the Swans in the 1945 Grand Final, aka The Bloodbath.

Both the ’45 Blues and the ’24 Sydney Swans are the only Grand Finalists in history to make the Grand Final after losing a game by 100+ points, with the Swans in position to set the record for the biggest defeat by an eventual premier.

Of the teams to appear in multiple Grand Finals, South Melbourne/Sydney have the second-worst strike of any team, winning only 5 of 18 Grand Final appearances (27.75%), with St Kilda at the bottom, having only 1 win and a draw from 8 appearances (18.75%).

A 14th Grand Final defeat would tie the Swans with Carlton and Essendon for the second-most Grand Final defeats, behind runaway leaders Collingwood on 27.

The Brisbane Lions

The 2024 Brisbane Lions are the third team since the current finals system was implemented in 2000 to make the Grand Final from outside the Top 4, joining the 2016 and 2021 Western Bulldogs.

The Lions are the first Grand Final runner-up to make it back to the Grand Final since Hawthorn in 2012-13…. In 2013 and 2024, the Lions and Hawks defeated Geelong in a Preliminary Final, the Grand Final was played on September 28, and Chris Fagan was part of both coaching groups.

At 63 years and 97 days, Fagan will also eclipse his own record of being the oldest coach in Grand Final history, which he set in 2023 after overtaking Mick Malthouse, who was 58 years & 45 days when he coached Collingwood in the 2011 Grand Final, although Malthouse is still the oldest premiership coach in history, being 57 years of age when Collingwood won the replay in 2010.

Should the Lions lose, they would become the first team to lose consecutive Grand Finals without a draw since Collingwood in 2002-03, who lost both games to the Lions… St Kilda lost in 2009, drew the first Grand Final of 2010, then lost the replay to Collingwood.

Brisbane is the second team in league history to play 27 games during a season, joining North Melbourne in 1977, who played 22 home & away games, 3 finals and 2 Grand Finals after drawing the first Grand Final against Collingwood.

If the Lions win, then they would have an identical record to North in 1977 – 18 wins, 1 draw, 8 defeats.

North’s John Cassin had the long-standing record of being the only player to play in 27 games during a season, with Lions players Jarrod Berry, Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Josh Dunkley, Jaspa Fletcher, Ryan Lester, Kai Lohmann, Hugh McCluggage, Cam Rayner, Darcy Wilmot & Dayne Zorko set to join him.

Brisbane have won 22 opening quarters (From 26 games) in 2024, matching Geelong in 2007 and Essendon in 1985 for the most 1st Quarters won in a single season… the Cats and Bombers both won the Premiership in those years.

Brisbane can become the second team in league history to defeat both GWS and the Sydney Swans in the same finals series, joining the 2016 Western Bulldogs, who defeated the Giants in the Preliminary Final, then the Swans in the Grand Final.

By finishing with 14 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats during the season, Brisbane can become the first team to lose at least 8 home & away games and win the Premiership since Adelaide in 1998, who finished 5th with a record of 13 wins and 9 defeats – The 2003 Lions and 2005 Swans both lost 7 games during the home & away season, then lost an 8th game in the Qualifying Final before winning the Premiership.

By winning the Preliminary Final, the Lions have a winning Finals record under Chris Fagan (8-7) for the first time during his tenure, having won just 1 of his first 6 finals with the Lions.

One final one

The 2023 & 2024 Lions are the first team to feature as the ‘away’ team in consecutive Grand Finals since the 2005-06 West Coast Eagles.

Both teams lost the first Grand Final (2005 & 2023) by 4 points.

The next year, they both played the Sydney Swans in the Grand Final.

West Coast won that decider by 1 point… the stars are aligning.