With the Dapto Dogs done after 89 years, here’s the pinnacle of Terry Hill on a Thursday night Footy Show cross

Terry Hill and the Dapto Dogs, two great New South Wales sporting institutions forever in our memories.

Well here we are, Week One of the 2025 NRL Finals, and something popped up on my social media feeds earlier in the week, which I couldn’t believe at first, but after digging back through the record books, it turned out to be completely true:

Since the Top 8 Finals system was first used in 1995, the 8th-placed team on the ladder (Including 1998 with a 10-team finals series) has only won 4 times in Week One – 2008, 2009, 2017, 2022.

2008 (8th vs 1st) = New Zealand Warriors defeated the Melbourne Storm 18-15… the first of many times that Ivan Cleary has inflicted torture on the Storm in the Finals, and some would argue is still the greatest win the Warriors have ever had considering they upended the Storm at Olympic Park, and they ultimately went on to make the Preliminary Final and got done by eventual premiers Manly.

2009 (8th vs 1st) = Parramatta Eels defeated St George-Illawarra 25-12… a week after being beaten by the same team at the same venue 37-0, the Eels produced an all-time great upset against the minor premiers, one that upended the entire finals series as reigning premiers Manly went out in Week One, the Dragons went out in straight sets, the Storm got the week off from 4th, and Daniel Anderson’s Eels, after sitting 14th after Round 18, went on to become the first team in history to make the Grand Final from 8th, and they ultimately lost a Grand Final now stricken from the history books.

2017 (8th vs 5th) = North Queensland Cowboys defeated Cronulla Sharks 15-14… after scraping into the finals thanks to a Dragons choke, the Cowboys, without Johnathan Thurston, knocked out the reigning premiers in extra time after surviving a last minute surge by the Sharks, then took out the Eels and Roosters to become the second team to make the Grand Final from 8th, but were smoked 34-6 by the Melbourne Storm.

2022 (8th vs 5th) = Canberra Raiders defeated Melbourne Storm 28-20… perhaps the least interesting one of the four teams, the Raiders got into the finals after winning their last 4 games to jump the Broncos into 8th spot, leaving them to play a Melbourne Storm team that got dumped out of the Top 4, which was extremely good for Canberra because they had won 4 consecutive games at AAMI Park, and ultimately the Raiders scored the last 2 tries to stun the Storm 28-20, the game sealed by a stroke of luck with a Falcon pass that led to Rapana’s last try:

The reason I say least interesting is because the Raiders were the only one of the teams that didn’t make the Prelim Final, losing 40-4 to eventual Grand Finalists Parramatta in the Semi Finals.

That list also doesn’t include the 1998 Canterbury Bulldogs, who sat in 9th on the ladder after the home & away season, but thanks to the one-off 10 team finals in the first year of the unified NRL, made the finals and proceeded to win 4 consecutive finals (The last of which was their epic Preliminary Final comeback against Parramatta) to make the Grand Final, in which they were well beaten by the Brisbane Broncos.

NOW, FOR THE OPENING OF THE NRL FINALS

– The Melbourne Storm and Canterbury get the Friday night slot for the 2nd vs 3rd game, with the Storm getting smashed by key injuries and suspensions in the build-up to the Finals (Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen injured in Round 27 + NAS getting suspended again), and the Berries’ finals push getting derailed by various problems, namely Marcelo Montoya’s ankle injury and Reed Mahoney getting dumped for Toby Sexton.

Anyway, it’s the sixth time the Storm and Bulldogs have met in the Finals, the first since the 2014 Elimination Final when the Bulldogs won 28-4 at AAMI Park thanks to Tim Lafai’s hat-trick, and the Bulldogs are one of 4 teams to have a winning finals record against the Storm, the others being the Warriors (2-0), Penrith (3-1) and Newcastle (2-1).

– The 6th vs 7th Final on Saturday afternoon/evening has the New Zealand Warriors hosting Penrith at Mt Smart, in what is only the fifth final ever to be played in Auckland (2002, 2007, 2008, 2023), and the fourth overall between the Wahs and Panthers, with Penrith winning the previous three (2003 PF, 2018 EF, 2023 QF), and after Top 4 finishes in the last 5 seasons the Riff find themselves having to win 4 consecutive sudden death finals to bring up the Fivepeat, this time having to go through a Wahs team with premiership Panthers James Fisher-Harris and Kurt Capewell, with this their attempt at a record 13th consecutive finals win, a record they took from the St George machine (10 in a row between 1958 and 1962) in last year’s Preliminary Final.

– The 5th vs 8th Final has Cronulla hosting the Sydney Roosters at Shark Park, the second time in three years that the teams are playing an Elimination Final at Shark Park as a premiership Rooster in Craig Fitzgibbon takes on his old master Robbo, and as alluded to previously, history is against the Roosters with 8th place only winning 4 times in Week One in 30 years, but history is on their side when it comes to Finals against the Sharks, winning all 3 contests in 2002, 2018 and 2023, all of them in Week One – Interestingly, the Sharks haven’t won a Final at Shark Park since Week One in 2008 against Canberra, back when Ricky Stuart was coaching the Sharks, and until those repeat losses in 2022 and 2023, the Sharks did hold a perfect record in Finals in the Shire (2 wins vs Canberra in the ’97 Super League Finals, 1999 vs Brisbane, 2001 vs Brisbane, and 2008 vs Canberra)

– And in a timeslot the minor premiers requested, the 1st vs 4th Final on Sunday afternoon has the Canberra Raiders against the Brisbane Broncos in the nation’s capital, the first time the teams have met in a final since 1995, when both teams were still the dominant forces of the Winfield Cup, as the Raiders took out the Broncos in 1990 before they defended the premiership, the Broncos took the Raiders out in 1993 before they defended the premiership…

But ’95 was different, because despite Canberra finishing 2nd (Brisbane were 3rd), they had to play the game in Brisbane at Lang Park, although at the time the Broncos were playing at ANZ Stadium/QSAC so it was technically a neutral venue – The Raiders won that game 14-8, but both clubs were spent forces as they got knocked out by a rampaging Canterbury team that came from 6th to win the premiership, and the ’90s Raiders were damned to never return to the Grand Final… until 2019.

Still, the fact that this game is a 1st vs 4th is a testament to both coaches – Ricky Stuart for building on last year and launching the Green Machine into a minor premiership after nobody thought they’d even sniff the Top 4, and Madge for wandering into Red Hill after the carnage of last year’s Grand Final hangover + the sacking of Kevin Walters and whipping the Broncs back into a Top 4 team in the space of 12 months.

Once again, Madge is one of the finest coaches of the 21st Century… heck, the man was so certain Souths would win the 2014 Premiership that he made a bet with the Coach Whisperer that they’d both cut off their left pinkie fingers if Souths didn’t win.

Of course, the other key point for this game is that as of last Sunday, THE RAIDERS CURSED THEMSELVES.

They rested all those players before the game against the Dolphins, leading to the Dolphins putting 62 points on them, and as everyone knows all too well, no team in the history of First Grade rugby league has conceded 50+ points in a game and won the premiership.

It is the most consistent stat in the history of the game.

Now, the Week One Finals succinct tips:

Round 27 tips = 5/8

Progressive Score = 117/196 (59.8%)

And with a warm-up for the Finals, here’s a Scotsman from Adelaide