Based on a series of believable events in a regional Victorian town
JT’s dartboard job of a Doncaster Mile pick – Avilius Each-Way
Daylight Savings are finished, but the peak of the Autumn carnival is only just beginning with Day 1 of the Championships, also known as The Championswamps due to Sydney’s weather, headlined by the four-headed Group 1 attack of the Sires’ Produce Stakes, the old AJC Derby, another snout in the trough TJ Smith Stakes, and the feature Doncaster Mile with a capacity field of 20, but if you ask me, none of them can hold a candle to the Country Championships Final in Race 3.
Of all the insane concepts that racing administrators have come up this century, the Country Championships is like a 6 that flies right off the meat of the bat, out of the ground, and smashes someone’s front windscreen for good measure.
There’s also some other boring as batshit races happening on Saturday – The Port Adelaide Guineas at Morphetville, the race where every patron has their car stolen, The Narrogin Cup in Narrogin, the Galilee Series final at Caulfield, named after Bart Cummings’ legendary stayer, and the Group 2 WATC Derby at Ascot, which, if you didn’t know, is in Belmont.
Fun fact about Galilee – He’s still the only horse to win the Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup and Sydney Cup in the same season (1966-67) and the only horse to perform the Melbourne & Sydney Cups double since then is one Makybe Diva.
Of course, if you’ve been following Crazy Craig’s inane commentary over the past fortnight, you’d know that he’s had some success with his Each-Way picks, which have both landed in the places at healthy odds (Tricky Gal was $3.50 the place and Impecunious $3.80), so we’ll see if The Boy From Bairnsdale can pull off the place bet hat-trick with whatever the hell he’s picked.
So enough of my garbage, here’s the mental magician with his PICKS of The Day, to the tune of the one and only LUCKY LIPS!
The Irishman (No.4, Barrier 5) in the Carbine Club Stakes at Randwick (SR2), 12:10pm AEST
1600m Group 3 Set Weights + Penalties 3YO
Trainer: Mark Newnham, Jockey: Josh Parr, 56kg
Hello hello friends, it’s Crazy Crazy Craig, The Boy From Bairnsdale, all set to G.O. for another big weekend, and to kick it off, I’ve got a bone to pick with you knackers, because I’ve got no idea why those Cockroaches that run racing north of the Murray River call these Championships at Royal Randwick the ‘Grand Finals’ of Australian racing.’
THE SEASON’S STILL GOT 4 MONTHS TO GO YOU SELF-CENTRED SUCKHOLES!
Anyway knackers, Caulfield can go and get effed this week, so I’m heading straight up to Sin City for some WET TRACK action, and I’m kicking it off in the Carbine Club early in the day with THE IRISHMAN, who you’d think would be The Irishman from Ireland, but instead he’s The Irishman from New Zealand!
Top o’ the morning to ya, cuz!
More to the point, The Irishman has progressed nicely in both of his Australian runs since crossing the Tasman – He won at Warwick Farm in a Benchmark 78 by a flared nostril, then went straight into a Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes, and comfortably defeated every horse except a barnstorming Hungry Heart, and based on the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes last week, that’s a very good form reference, knackers!
The other important wet track question appears to have been successfully answered, because he has won a Heavy track back home in Aotearoa when Tony Pike (No relation to William) trained him, and placed 2nd in one of his two soft track runs, and as for the other details, the Newnham/Parr combination usually know what they’re doing, unlike myself and Crazy Colin, and as for the other runners, WHO CARES, BECAUSE I’M NOT BACKING THOSE CAMELS!
So there you go folks, THE IRISHMAN from New Zealand, the first of my two LUCKY LIPS PICKS OF THE DAY.
Young Werther (No.7, Barrier 14) E/W in the ATC/Australian Derby at Randwick (SR7), 3:15pm AEST
2400m Group 1 Set Weights 3YO
Trainer: Danny O’Brien, Jockey: Tom Marquand, 56.5kg
Moving on to the time-honoured Australian Derby, and did you know knackers, this year marks 160 years since the first AJC Derby was run at Randwick, and 25 years since the mighty Octagonal defeated Saintly, Filante and Nothin’ Leica Dane to complete the last 3-Year-Old Triple Crown of the 20th Century!
What a great 3-year-old crop that was, and compare it to the current lot, who are a giant bunch of Clan O’Sullivans – Hearts as big as peas, and you’ll see why in the Doncaster tomorrow afternoon!
Anyway knackers, it’s easy enough for me to pick the filly Montefilia in this because she’s got the runs on the board at Group 1 level, or Sky Lab based on the Rosehill Guineas run, but they don’t call me CRAZY CRAIG for being boring as batshit, so I’m straying away from the favourites and going for the value – YOUNG WERTHER.
I don’t know who Old Werther was, but he must’ve been German!
Now, this is usually where some bright-eyed youngster comes up and reminds me “But Crazy Craig, Montefila, Lion’s Roar and Sky Lab have the Group 1 form!”
And in response, I’d say that I couldn’t give a crap, BECAUSE MONTEFILIA COST ME THE QUADDIE ON OAKS DAY.
$1.80 IN THE OAKS AND YOU COULDN’T BEAT PERSONAL, YOU BLOODY FRAUD.
So that said, I’ve got a number of stereotypical reasons why I’ve gone for a $13 pop in a very open field:
- I’m not all there, don’t you worry about that
- Young Werther placed in a VRC Derby in the Spring at only his 3rd start, so we know he can stay 2400m!
- He produced the run of the race in the Tulloch Stakes with the track bias and tempo against him, having to start a run from the rear at the 600m and sustaining it all the way to the line to run 3rd within a length!
- Australia’s most beloved Englishman since Leo Sayer in Tom ‘The Pom’ Marquand is sticking aboard, and I’d back him in to find a good spot from Barrier 14!
- The last FOUR AJC Derby winners have all come out of the Tulloch Stakes the previous week
- 3-year-old staying races are known chook raffles (Look at the VRC Derby), and I WANT A HIGH-PRICED TICKET!
Now, as for the wet track question, he does have the big question mark of having never run on a rain-affected track, and he’s got the red flag of blinkers first time rising in trip, which makes you question why I even mentioned Young Werther…
BUT, I should remind youse that I once dropped dozens of $50 notes on a Bairnsdale footpath on purpose for people to find, so this isn’t even in my Top 42 most questionable pieces of decision making!
So in summation Sky Lab looks the hot horse, but I’m hoping that YOUNG WERTHER can carry the hopes of the Lucky Lips battalion and run in the Top 3, as my VALUE PICK OF THE DAY.
As always, enjoy your weekend folks, I’m Crazy Craig, and that’s why they call me CRAAAAAAZY CRAIG!
Categories: Horse Racing