Based on a series of plausible events in a regional Victorian town
JT’s Piss Poor Cox Plate Tip: Zaaki to bounce back
Just to kick off this week, here’s a nice old staying form reference through this Spring.
On September 18, Nonconformist won the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield, defeating Grand Promenade, Delphi and Tralee Rose.
Grand Promenade started favourite in the Bart Cummings and won, Delphi started favourite in the Herbert Power and won, Tralee Rose started favourite in the Geelong Cup and won, and Nonconformist ran 2nd in two Group 1s in a week – The Might And Power to Probabeel, and in the Caulfield Cup to Incentivise, who is a mere $2.30 for the Melbourne Cup.
Although, some would argue Nonconformist ran 3rd in the Caulfield Cup, because Incentivise won, and Daylight was 2nd.
So with the carnage of Caulfield done, it’s on to the W.S Cox Plate, the race that used to be in the Top 25 races in the vicinity of Moonee Ponds, although the local council are considering dumping it to No.26 due to the questionable decisions of the Moonee Valley Racing Club.
Gee, now that Gold Trip has been taken out, wouldn’t you like to have Keiai Nautique in the field…. At least you’d have 10 bloody runners for the biggest Weight For Age race in the damn country.
Still, that Cox Plate field of 9 horses looks world class compared to tonight’s horrifically average Manikato Stakes field, which appears to have been caved in by a landslide from The Everest.
Looking at the other big races tomorrow, there’s the inaugural running of The Invitation at Randwick to accompany those Listed races, as Pistol Pete V’Landys continues his streak of naming new races in the style of Seinfeld episodes, and personally I’d like to see his next new race for the Sydney Spring to be named The Contest…
Other than that, it’s the Belgravia Stakes at Ascot, which is in Belmont, which is in Burswood.
So on that note, it’s on to Crazy Craig for his Picks of the Day, and accompanying him as always, it’s the familiar sound of Sir Cliff Richard covering Ruth Brown, because he’s got LUCKY LIPS!
Pick of the Day: Elephant (No.5, Barrier 2) in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley (MR6), 3:10pm AEDT
1600m Group 2 SWFA
Trainers: Emma-Lee and David Browne, Jockey: Damian Lane, 59kg
Hello hello everyone it’s Craaaazy Craig, TBFB, trying to make it a hat-trick of wins for the Pick of the Day, and after I saw Crazy Colin getting nabbed by the cops while riding down the street in his pyjamas, I thought I’d seen it all…
Then Victoria randomly got out of lockdown!
Sure, we’re still rooted with the old Coronavirus comfortably handling the 2040 every day like a Cox Plate contender, but at least we’re not cooped up in our caves, and do you know what I did when the clock struck midnight?
I called Colin and told him to PISS OFF, and BUY HIS OWN DAMN BEER!
So looking ahead, it’s good old Cox Plate Day, when many a great horse has confirmed themselves as a champion of the Australian turf, like Mosaic, Dane Ripper, Northerly, Pinker Pinker and Shamus Award, so being a few cards short of a deck upstairs, I’m going to completely bypass the Cox Plate itself, and attempt to land the POTD earlier in the day in the Crystal Mile, because I like an Elephant that was imported to Melbourne from New Zealand!
Talk about crazy, in addition to an Elephant, the Brownes also imported a Rhinoceros, and they’re both in this race against a Buffalo!
Hang on a minute, is this race the Crystal Mile, or Bert Kaempfert’s Swingin’ Safari?
Anyway, Elephant has been very decent in his four starts in Australia, winning at Caulfield, running a narrow 2nd in the Feehan at this very same track & distance to Superstorm, which saw him miss a Cox Plate start, followed by a tough win in the Sandown Stakes, but the Toorak Handicap was a total forget run as he got caught wide by eventual winner I’m Thunderstruck and copped a few bumps, and despite presenting well enough he just never let down and finished a distant 8th.
Why is it a total forget run?
BECAUSE I SAID SO.
Of course with Embolism scratched, Elephant’s most obvious threat, aside from African poachers, is Buffalo River, who finally led all the way and won in the Moonga last weekend at Caulfield, and with Death Valley’s recent sketchy history of on pace bias you’d think that he’ll try and do the same here, but the speed map has him fighting Elephant’s stablemate Rhinoceros for the lead, and if Damian Lane still has a few brain cells in his membrane, he’ll slot straight in behind them both and give the gelding the run of the race, on what might turn out to be a Soft track with the putrid weather ahead for Melbourne!
The Pick of the Day has actually done what it’s supposed to do in the last two weeks, with D.Lane delivering on Colette last weekend, and I’ve got to back the Bunbury bogan to bring up a winning hat-trick for the Pick of the Day, which I haven’t achieved since February!
That’s how shithouse I’ve been going!
So there you go knackers, Elephant is my PICK OF THE DAY.
Value Pick of the Day: Tricky Gal (No.11, Barrier 1) in The Invitation at Randwick, 5:35pm AEST
1400m Fillies & Mares Set Weights & Penalties
Trainer: Matthew Smith, Jockey: Alysha Collett, 57kg
On to the Value pick, the Each-Way pick, maybe even the Place pick, because it’s not far off, and I’ve gone straight to The Invitation, despite not getting an invite from Racing NSW, but quite frankly the concept of invitations doesn’t exist here in Bairnsdale, just ask Crazy Colin, who visits my house more times than a serial home invader!
So much like the Crystal Mile, the favourite for the race is a New Zealander from New Zealand, in the form of Entriviere, but outside of her, the race is as wide open as the Simpson Desert, and as I’ve said previously, I can’t go around picking favourites all the time, so I’ve decided to go for a mare who once ran 2nd for me as the Each-Way pick back in the Autumn, Tricky Gal!
Since her last win in a Benchmark 78 at Canterbury back in September of last year, Tricky Gal has run 2nd on a grand total of 7 occasions, the most recent being her 1st Up run in The Nivision a fortnight back, and you’re probably wondering, ‘Crazy Craig, why the hell are you picking a horse that hasn’t won in 13 months and keeps coming 2nd all the bloody time?’
Well, you know what I call a horse that’s run 2nd seven times in a year?
THE PERFECT PLACE BET.
In that Nivision, Tricky Gal was taken back from the wide barrier by Alysha Collett, and she shot up the rail through 3 gaps that most senior jockeys wouldn’t dare go and finished 2nd by just under a length to Minhaaj, beating several horses featuring in The Invitation (Sweet Deal, Rocha Clock, Madam Legend), and history shows that Tricky Gal does her best work fresh, with a record of 5:3-2 1st Up!
Off the back of the big run, Alysha, sister of Jason, sticks with the mare, who goes from drawing the carpark to the fence (13 into 1), and hopefully that’ll mean Tricky Gal can sit a bit further forward behind what might be a typical hot speed battle, and all up it should be a good inaugural running of The Invitation, and hopefully Tricky Gal can pull another magic trick and run 2nd, because she’s the VALUE PICK OF THE DAY.
Anyway friends, stay safe, keep your eyes on the road, don’t be a stranger, or throw your phone in the river, have a nice first Saturday of freedom in about 25 years if you’re in Victoria, and remember, I’m Crazy Craig, and that’s why they call me Craaaaaazy Craig!
Categories: Horse Racing