Based on a series of plausible events in a regional Victorian town
That’s right friends, weirdos and people I’ve never met, it’s the first Tuesday of November, and the time has arrived for the 161st Melbourne Cup, the race that apparently once stopped the nation, only because it was 1930, Phar Lap was bigger than Bradman, and everyone was unemployed because of the Great Depression.
Of course, this year’s race will mark 20 years since Ethereal gave Sheila Laxon a place in history as the first woman to train a Melbourne Cup winner (Yep, it wasn’t Gai Waterhouse), and the Kiwi mare remains the most recent horse to complete the Cups double in the same season, something that Incentivise will attempt tomorrow with 90% of the nation riding his back:
And we won’t even mention that it’s the 10th anniversary of the Dunaden vs Red Cadeux finish…. how on earth did they find a margin for Dunaden:
Now, it’s a scientific fact that 90% of people usually only give a crap about the Melbourne Cup on Cup Day, and you instantly realise that these people are your classic TAB nuffies, because there’s about 4000 races nationwide on Tuesday to strike pay dirt in, and chances are you can get a winner in at least 2 of them.
So given this is the biggest day of the year, I’ve solicited messages to all the plausible characters who have helped me with the Chalk Eaters/The Pick of the Day over the last few years – ‘Crazy’ Craig, ‘Crazy’ Colin, plus the very willing businessman known as The Cheetah, and we’ve organised a special one-off Crazy Picks of the Day, and the word I’ve received from my mate Mr Alfonse is that the Crazies have claimed that if Incentivise doesn’t win the Cup, then they’ll both go down to the Bairnsdale shops in their pyjamas and start doing Crazy Colin’s favourite dance, known only as…
However, they’re both potentially insane, so I’d say it won’t happen even if Incentivise lands in a hole at the Clock Tower.
Now, when it comes to a Cup winner, I think I’ve only picked 1 in the 16 years since Makybe Diva, so instead of looking for a winner I enjoy taking the coward’s way out and going the $30 place bet, and after a bit of success last year with Tiger Moth running 2nd, this year’s Sporting Reviews $30 Cup place pick is….
NUMBER TWENTY CHEW, FLOATING ARTIST.
Horrifically unlucky in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, Barrier 10, lightweight, he’ll get a superb run just off the speed.
Crazy Colin’s Pick: Wil John (No.8, Barrier 8) in Race 2 at Flemington, 11:40am AEDT
2800m BM90 The Macca’s Run
Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, Jockey: John Allen, 54kg
Hello folks, Crazy Colin reporting in ahead of Cup Day, and I’m looking forward to NOT doing the Hucklebuck tomorrow, because myself and Crazy Craig are sure that Incentivise is the reincarnation of Might and Power, don’t you worry about that!
Now, I’m supposed to give youse my pick of the Flemington card, and after 5 minutes of checking, I’m instantly captivated by a runner in The Macca’s Run, which confuses me, because it’s over 2800m, and let’s be honest, if you’re trying to run 2800m to a McDonald’s, you should probably be bloody driving instead, you absolute nutjob!
Now, in that Macca’s Run I’m liking the chances of the one and only Wil John, whose name sounds like a question that was cut off halfway through.
Wil John what, finish the damn sentence!
Anyway, Wil John for the Maher-Eustace partnership is a decent jumps horse that’s having a go on the flat, and he’s having a go with some distinction, because he was under the pump a long way out in a 2400m Benchmark 84 at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas day, but he still kept kicking to beat his stablemate Smokin’ Romans by a length, who only just went under in the Group 3 Bendigo Cup last week, which suggests to me that the formlines are looking good.
And, it should be noted that Wil John also defeated Chris Waller’s Accountability in that Caulfield race, and the two of them square off again here, and to be honest, on a normal day I’d back Accountability, but anyone who knows me would know that after riding down a street in my pyjamas, I haven’t got any Accountability!
So in the end, the question we all need to ask is, Wil John Allen ride Wil John to victory?
Well, he’d bloody well better, because I’ve got him on top, so good luck to all involved!
The Cheetah’s Pick: Gracilistyla (No.4, Barrier 8) in Race 4 at Randwick, 1:40pm AEDT
1600m BM68 City Tattersalls Club
Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Hugh Bowman, 60kg
Gday folks, Cheetah writing in, great to be back after a long absence, in which I was very willing to do other things up here in sunny Queensland, such as providing character references.
Now, ahead of this big day, my mate was phone to Chris Waller the other day to ask about a horse he had in the early races at Randwick.
I called my mate yesterday, and I asked what Chris said about the horse.
My mate replied:
There you go – Enjoy your Tuesday folks, Cheetah signing off, and good punting to you all.
Crazy Craig’s Value Pick: Energy Within (No.12, Barrier 7) E/W in Race 8 at Flemington, 4pm AEDT
1400m Group 3 Mares Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
Trainer: Tom Dabernig, Jockey: Damien Oliver, 55kg
Hello hello hello everyone it’s Craaaaazy Craig, TBFB, backing up off my wildly successful exploits on Derby Day with my Picks of the Day, and not only did Great House salute as the Pick of the Day, I did tell you all that Teewaters would love that extra 500m in the Derby, and bloody oath he did, running 3rd at $31!
Still, it’s all a distant memory now, and I’ve been told to pull my finger out of my backside and do it all again on Cup Day, and I can’t be boring backing favourites every day, so in the Honkers Jockey Club Stakes for the mares, featuring the soap dodger Promise Of Success, I’m going a bit left field and taking Energy Within, in the fabled Bob Sangster silks, from a desolate place called Warrrnambool!
You wouldn’t want to be there on a warm day, because it’d still be bloody cold!
Now, you’ll see on the form line that Energy Within finished 9th at her last start, which was the Listed Black Pearl on Geelong Cup Day, when she got too far back and never ever got a clean shot at the leaders, but the two starts prior she recorded wins in benchmark level, including a big win from the back at Mornington, and guess who was riding her that day?
Who will be getting back aboard Energy Within on Tuesday?
In addition to getting a jockey who can yell her over the line, Energy Within goes up from Listed grade to Group 3, plus 1200m to 1400m, where she has won before, and with the benefit of a clean run, I think she’s got every hope of shaping up and running in the Top 3!
Anyway folks, enjoy your Cup Day, and remember, I’m Crazy Craig, and that’s why they call me Craaaaazy Craig!
JT’s Piss Poor Perth Pick: Treasured Star (No.10, Barrier 9) in the Burgess Queen Stakes at Ascot (PR9), 5:14pm AWST
1400m Listed 3YO Set Weights + Penalties
Trainers: Grant & Alana Williams, Jockey: William Pike, 54kg
You want to know why Treasured Star, the current all-in favourite for next month’s Kingston Town Classic, is $2.30 for the Burgess Queen?
That is an image to describe 80% of the people betting on Perth racing, and it’s why a crapload of short-priced favourites usually go down at Ascot or Belmont, because they’re false betting favourites due to the simple fact that Pikey is on them.
Still, that’s not the case here, because on exposed form, Treasured Star looks like another promising type for old mate Bob Peters in his cerise and white silks, having raced only 3 times for 2 good wins this Spring, both times charging home from the back with a superb turn of foot to win, and off the back of a Class 3 win midweek at Ascot, the Toronado filly has been thrown straight in the deep end at Listed level, and if she’s going to have any prospect of racing in the Kingston Town, she’s got to run well here.
Of course, it should be noted that another great Peters horse in Arcadia Queen only ran 3rd in the 2018 Burgess Queen as a $2.20 favourite, but she buttered up from that and won her next 3 starts, capped off by the Kingston Town win!
That said, there’s some good depth in this year’s Burgess Queen, because Searchin’ Roc’s, the obvious danger in the field, is reeling off a picket fence that now includes a convincing win in the Listed Belgravia, Buzzoom has won his last 2 starts, 3 other horses are last-start winners, so if Treasured Star is good enough, she can run them both down as she steps up to the 1400m first time.
So in summation, if you’re that much of a degenerate that you’ll still be punting on Cup day until well past 8:00 Eastern time, just wait for the drift on the favourite, because it should be coming.
Have a nice day everyone – Stay safe and GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY.
Categories: Horse Racing