Based on a series of plausible events in a regional Victorian town

Good morning, good afternoon or good evening friends, strangers and weirdos, it’s nearly the first Super Saturday of the year, on the last weekend of Summer, and the most important thing of note is that as they tend to be during this time of year, the coastal areas of New South Wales and South East Queensland are sitting under 200 feet of rain.

Instead of going to the BOM, I got on the phone to the Reverend Fred Nile to ask why the East Coast was copping so much rain, and he told me it was simply because the Lord got a glimpse at the costumes for this year’s Mardi Gras, and he was so upset at how bad they are, that he started uncontrollably crying.

Fix it up guys and girls, you’ve got a week.

Moving on, and regardless of the fact that Randwick is now a Heavy 28, it’s going to be a Super Saturday in every sense of the word, with a combined total of 5 Group 1s, headlined by the Chipping Norton at Randwick and the Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield:

The Surround Stakes at Randwick for the fillies, the Group 1 that should be a Group 2, the 1400m Weight For Age Futurity Stakes at Caulfield, and the 1100m Oakleigh Plate, which is the second leg of the Autumn Sprinting Treble, and the fact I always find incredible is that despite being trained at Caulfield all of her career, Black Caviar never raced in the Oakleigh Plate, which she would’ve won with 4 legs in the air.

The simple answer appears to be that it’s always held a week after the Lightning Stakes, and Peter Moody only ever ran BC once off a 7 day backup, which was when she won the 2012 CF Orr Stakes in her only go at 1400m, then dropped back to the 1000 metres and won her second Lightning a week later.

Other than that, there’s the Group 3 Lord Reims Stakes at Morphetville, which makes you think the Adelaide Cup isn’t too far away, and if you’re a masochist, the Ascot 1000 Guineas is on at Ascot… which is in Belmont.

So now it’s on to Crazy Craig, and hopefully he pulls his fingers out of the fire sometime soon, because it’s near enough to a month since he last bagged a winner, albeit he has racked up a few placings, so to Sir Cliff Richard, please give Craig some LUCKY LIPS:

Pick of the Day: Ellsberg (No.2, Barrier 10) in Race 5 at Randwick (SR5), 2:45pm AEDT

1300m Group 3 Quality Liverpool City Cup

Trainers: Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou, Jockey: Tim Clark, 57.5kg

Hello hello hello everyone, it’s Crazy Craig, TBFB, and this week I went to go buy $60 worth of scratchies at the newsagent for last night’s powerball, and when I got in there, I saw this miserable old bastard who looked down on his luck browsing at the lifestyle magazines.

After completing the transaction, I turned to the newsagent and told him “Give the scratchies to that old bloke, he looks like he needs them more than me!”

Why would I do that?

Because I’m a CRAZY nice bloke, that’s why, and I reckon we all need a pick me up at some point in life!

Hopefully I get a good pick me up at ROYAL Randwick tomorrow, because for whatever reason I just cannot find a winner for the Picks of the Day this month, but after going straight for the wet track form, I think we might just get one in the form of Ellsberg in Race 5, and as history shows, anyone with a name like Ellsberg is bound to have at least one dollar on them!

Anyway, Saturday in Sydney is 125% going to be a day for Heavy trackers, and while everybody and their canine companions are going to load up on a horse like Icebath in the Guy Walter (Race 6), I think Ellsberg is a very good chance 1st Up in the ol’ Liverpool City Cup, because history shows that his 1st Up record is extremely sound, with 3 wins from 3 attempts, and he has the runs on the Wet track board, with a 2nd placing and a win from 2 starts, and that win was the Group 3 Festival Stakes at Rosehill last November!

Now, if you look at the field for the race, obviously the lightly-raced winning machine Quantico has the weight advantage, which always helps when you’re racing on a bog like Randwick almost certainly will be, but I’d make two key points…

HE’S NEVER WON ON A SOFT TRACK, AND HE’S NEVER RUN ON A HEAVY TRACK!

Unproven commodity knackers, unproven!

Another thing that may work in Ellsberg’s favour is that while he usually races up on speed, the Waterhouse-trained duo of Riodini and Alligator Blood are both in the race, and you can absolutely put your bottom dollar on the fact that they’ll both go up hunting for the lead, so I can think if Ellsberg jumps well enough, then Tim Clark, the bloke with ‘TC’ on his breeches, can just slot in behind the pair of them and get a nice cart into the race.

That’s what it should be about – Giving your mount every chance to win, and if they’ve got a heart as big as a pea, then so be it!

So in conclusion, Ellsberg is my PICK OF THE DAY.

Value Pick: Allez Allez (No.1, Barrier 9) in Race 5 at Ascot (PR5), 3:40pm AWST

1800m 60+ Rating Handicap

Trainer: Vernon Brockman, Jockey: Brad Parnham, 59.5kg

Now knackers, I always like to be a bit bold when making a value pick, but today I’m not bold, I’m bloody FRENCH, because I’m taking Allez Allez!

Hit it Plastic Bertrand, and I don’t care if you’re a bloody waffle eating Belgian!

I’ve got no idea how I settled on a horse that sounds like an annoying French catchphrase, but I looked at the replay of a race in Perth from a fortnight back, and I noticed Allez Allez came from the Swan River on the turn to run a game 7th, only 2.2L off the winner Tena Koutou, although for a lack of a better word, he had BUCKLEYS chance of winning.

What also interested me is that the race was a 66+ rater.

This here is a 60+ rater.

He’s also jumping up from the mile to the 1800m, and based on the way he hit the line in that possibly doctored video, I reckon he’s crying out for the rise in distance, and importantly, the value is there for him to run a very game race!

He may not win, because horses like Tri For Us and She’s A Sweet Deel are going to hog the limelight, but he can definitely run a place, and if he does, I’ll cheer allez allez for Allez Allez, because he’s my Value PICK OF THE DAY.

As for the others… Well, I don’t know who they are, because after all, I’m not all there!

Random Tracy Chapman Pick: Revolutionary Miss (No.11, Barrier 11) in the Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield (MR7), 4:25pm AEDT

1200m Group 1

Trainers: Peter & Paul Snowden, Jockey: Jamie Kah, 55kg

Ah, last year I had great success with Celebrity Queen as the Queen Pick in the Oakleigh Plate on Blue Diamond Day, now we’ll see if I can go it again with…

TRACY CHAPMAN!

Don’t you know,
They’re Talkin’ ’bout a Revolution…. ary Miss!

Enjoy your Saturday folks, stay safe, stay negative, KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE ROAD, and remember, I’m Crazy Craig, and that’s why they call me Craaaaaazy Craig!