Based on a series of plausible events in a regional Victorian town

In the time you have read this sentence, at least 15,000mm of rain will have been deposited onto Sydney, because nobody in the First Fleet bothered checking the BOM reports for Sydney when they plundered they way into Botany Bay and started a settlement.

Once again, the historical impact of colonisation continues to bite us on the arse.

So on that boggy note, while the Australian Grand Prix rages on, it’s time for Day 2 of the so-called Championswamps at Randwick, which are a high chance of not even going ahead at all in this weather, which would be a shame considering there’s yet another list of 4 quality Group 1 races, starting with the Australian Oaks, the time-honoured Sydney Cup, one of only two remaining 3200m Group 1s in this country, the Queen of the Turf for the fillies & mares….

And the highlight of the day is yet another lightweight heavyweight edition of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, which could very well feature the best field for an Australian Group 1 since the retirement of Winx, with at least 5 multiple Group 1 winners in a field of 9, and at least 4 of them scored superb Group 1 wins at their last starts.

Zaaki vs Verry Elleegant vs Anamoe vs Duais vs Montefilia, versus the other poor bastards who won’t be able to get a hoof in the ground, like Think It Over and Dalasan, or they’re simply comparative lemons, like Dalasan and Mount Popa.

Of course, the other races of mild note include the Provincial/Midway Championships, the Group 2 Percy Sykes Stakes, named after the wonder vet who saved Tulloch, the Listed Redoute’s Choice Stakes at Caulfield, the Port Adelaide Guineas at Morphetville, and because it’s the Port Adelaide Guineas, a horse named ‘Jordan Dawson’ can win it after the siren, and the lucky last big race is the Group 2 WATC Derby at Ascot, which won’t be won by Bob Peters for the first time in yonks, simply because he doesn’t have a horse in the field.

So enough of my crap, it’s time for Crazy Craig, fresh off a huge run from his Value Pick Benaud in the ATC Derby, and a win for How’s The Serenity, so let’s see if he can keep the ball rolling, because just like Cliff Richard, he’s got Lucky Lips!

Value Pick: Sheraz (No.7, Barrier 6) in the Sydney Cup at Randwick (SR7), 3:15pm AEST

3200m Group 1 Handicap

Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Craig Williams, 51kg

Hello hello everyone it’s Craaaaazy Craig TBFB, still dealing out the scratchies to the down on their luck, and I’m back for Round 2 at Randwick, and some people will get turned off punting by the utterly shithouse weather belting Sydney like the old school teachers used to try with me, but if you ask your old mate over here, you know what wet tracks are perfect for?

FINDING VALUE!

Now, obviously there’s plenty of incentive for myself and every other Tom, Dick and Harry to have a crack at the Queen Elizabeth, but instead, I’ll go for the feature staying event of the day in the Sydney Cup, which features just 1 Australian-bred horse against 18 foreigners!

1 Australian against 18 foreigners stealing our jobs and money…. someone get A Current Affair on the phone!

Anyway, I’ve had a look at those 18 foreigners, and after a careful lack of consideration, I’ve gone for a Frenchman from France who was imported by Chris Waller, who has the perfect name for something bred in France…

Sheraz!

He comes in to the race after running 7th in the rerun Tancred Stakes at Newcastle, in which he got bumped at the start, then he made contact with The Chosen One on the turn, and after that he weakened out on the turn…

Now, obviously that doesn’t scream “I am going to piss it in”, but I think with the jump from 2400m to 3200m, there’s a few things to consider with Sheraz:

– He’s a Listed winner over 3000m in France, which is basically Group 2 form when you consider how crap Australian staying races are, so the further the better

– He has the turn of foot of Lieutenant Dan, but that will not bloody matter when you’re staring down the barrel of a Heavy 10,000 track

– 51kg means he’s got a featherweight on his back, and that featherweight is called Craig Williams

– His Heavy track record is sound, with 1 win and 3 placings from 5 attempts

And…

– I’m not all there, don’t you worry about that!

Obviously there’s better credentialed horses in the race, like Stockman (2nd to Duais last start) and Chalk Stream, which is also reinforced by a form comment on Sheraz that said “May find it tough at this level.”

I call bullcrap, he’s a bloody Listed European stayer, with how shithouse our stayers are, that means he’s Group 2 quality at least!

So there you go, Sheraz is my VALUE Pick of the Day.

Pick of the Day: Trix of the Trade (No.1, Barrier 8) in the WATC Derby at Ascot (PR4), 4:35pm AWST

2400m Group 2 3YO Set Weights

Trainer: Colin Webster, Jockey: Troy Turner, 56.5kg

On to the Pick of the Day, and I’ve gone all the way over to Ascot, which is in bloody Belmont if you can believe it, and they’ve got the fourth-biggest race in WA on this weekend, the WATC Derby, and for the first time in what must be a generation, there won’t be a Bob Peters-owned horse in the field!

How crazy is that!

The moment Pikey leaves, the whole thing’s gone down the creek without a canoe!

Anyway, this year’s WA Derby is an outright race in two, Bonecrusher vs Our Waverley Star style, between Col Webster’s Trix of the Trade and Dan Morton’s Alaskan God, who isn’t even from Alaska, and after tossing a coin that landed on it’s side, I’ve gone with Trix of the Trade, who won the Breeders, the Challenge and the Lex Piper, before he ran 2nd in the JC Roberts and Melvista to a certain Alaskan God from Alaska, who comes in off the back off 4 consecutive wins from just 5 starts!

Their most recent meeting was the aforementioned Melvista on March 26 over the 2200m, and on that occasion, Alaskan God let down on the turn and shot away to win by a length to stake his Derby claim, as Trix of the Trade simply got too far back to challenge the gelding, but still flashed home into 2nd to make sure Alaskan God needs eyes out the back of his head!

NOW, it should be noted that one big advantage out of the Melvista that might be in Trix’s favour is that thanks to the set weights to leave everyone at 56.5kg, he meets Alaskan God 3kg better off from the Melvista meeting, as Alaskan God carried 54kg that day, versus Trix dropping from 57 to 56.5…

Dropping weight matters in The Biggest Loser, and it absolutely matters when you’ve got 3-year-olds attempting to run at a staying distance!

So anyway, it’ll be yet another snout in the trough staying race, and as you know I don’t stick my nose into that staying trough too often, but in what should be a very tense finish, I’m expecting Trix Of The Trade to show the tricks of the trade, because he’s my PICK OF THE DAY.

Random Deal or No Deal Pick: Ain’tnodeeldun (No.6, Barrier 2) in Race 8 at Caulfield (MR8), 4:50pm AEST

1600m BM84 Iam Handicap

Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman, Jockey: Jamie Mott, 58kg

Ironic to think Andrew O’Keefe might go to prison before The Dealer…

Some of those bank offers were bordering on financial fraud.

Enjoy your Saturday folks, stay safe, stay negative, KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE ROAD, and remember, I’m Crazy Craig, and that’s why they call me Craaaaaazy Craig!