Based on a series of plausible events in a regional Victorian town

Well friends, here we are for the first day of October, and the story of the week is that Melbourne Cup winner Verry Elleegant couldn’t get a run in Sunday’s Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp because her highest rating throughout 2022 (113) wasn’t high enough to gain a start in the field.

It’s just another example of a great bit of back and forth between Australia and Europe that’s been building for years:

“Your horses aren’t fit enough to run in the Melbourne Cup”

“Okay, your horses are too crap to get a run in the Arc”

It would appear the French are still pissed off about us reneging on the submarine deal, as if the recent Bledisloe Cup refereeing didn’t confirm that, so for now VE will be running in the Prix de Royallieu over 2800 metres at Longchamp, Race 3 on Saturday evening at 8:30/10:30 our time.

So while a Kiwi horse gets laughed at by the French, we’ve got some top notch good ordinary Group 1 racing in Australia to mark the last day before the clocks go forward, highlighted by Epsom Handicap day at Royal Randwick, featuring the Group 1 trio of the Epsom Handicap over the Randwick Mile, the Metropolitan and the Flight Stakes, simultaneously joined by the G1 Turnbull Stakes meeting at Flemington, which will be the last meeting at Flemington prior to Derby Day, which means the first of the Spring 2-year-olds are in action, despite not having even turned 2 yet.

The other important race of the day at Flemington is The Bart Cummings in Race 6, with the grand prize being a ballot exemption for the Melbourne Cup, giving a bog average stayer a priceless ticket past the handicapper, so congratulations to Ciaron Maher & David Eustace on inevitably training the winner.

And among the other highlights of the day, the Murtoa Cup in the northwest of Victoria, there’s a Group 1 race of some kind in New Zealand out at Hastings, which was where William The Conqueror defeated the Saxons in 1066, and of course, over in Wait Awhile it’s time for one of the great country cups of Australia…..

The Kalgoorlie Cup.

Good luck to all those in the Goldfields this weekend, especially if you’re trying to get a beer at Kal racecourse, because you’ve got deadset Buckley’s chance, you poor bastards.

So it’s on to Crazy Craig, and somehow over the long sporting weekend he found yet another winner (All The King’s Men) while the Geelong players were up on the dais receiving their premiership medals, so that’s now 3 winners in the 2 weeks since he changed to his new Good Luck Charm theme song, and on that note, take it away Elvis!

Pick of the Day: Fireburn (No.1) in the Flight Stakes at Randwick (SR6), 2:45pm AEST

1600m 3YO Fillies Group 1

Trainer: Gary Portelli, Jockey: Brenton Avdulla, 56kg

Hello hello everyone it’s Craaaazy Craig TBFB, Scratchie King of Bairnsdale, and I’m in a bit of a rush this week because we’re off to a mate’s house, so for the time being you call me Crazy Craig, PYROMANIAC…

BECAUSE I LOVE PLAYING WITH FIRE!

One minute I back Fire, next week I’m backing FIREBURN!

Couple of reasons:

– This field is crap

– 3rd Up off a week’s break following a luckless run in the Golden Rose, when she hit the inside of the barrier and was always pushing it up hill

– Progressive build-up from 1200m to 1400m and now to 1600m

– And finally, I’m not all there, don’t you worry about that!

FIREBURN, my PICK OF THE DAY.

Value Pick: Excelida (No.8, Barrier 7) E/W in Race 4 at Flemington (MR4), 2:25pm AEST

1400m Mares Group 2 Rose of Kingston Stakes

Trainers: Ben & JD Hayes, Jockey: Michael Dee, 55kg

After a good win on Boxing Day last year, Excelida from the Hayes family turned into a very good professional placegetter in the new year and into the Autumn, with a 3rd on Australia Day, and months later she racked up a hat-trick of 3rd placings in Listed and Group 3 races prior to going in for a spell.

The milk drinking mare resumed 1st Up with a 5th at Caulfield two weeks back in the How Now after being caught wide no cover, and goes into this with the run under the belt, the track should be a fit firmer than it was at Caulfield when the rain came down and God had his revenge for the Mardi Gras…

Of course, Excelida goes up against at least 4 better horses than her, so you can come to the conclusion that she’s up the creek without a canoe, but if she can pull out the stopper and run a whopper and finish in the Top 3, I’d be whelmed.

Why?

BECAUSE I’M A LUNATIC!

PROSPECTING FOR GOLD IN KALGOORLIE: False Statement (No.5, Barrier 4) E/W in Race 7 at Kalgoorlie (CR7), 4:05pm AWST (6:05)

1100m 66+ Rating Ron Sayers Sprint

Trainer: Felicity Forbes-Ives, Jockey: Brad Parnham, 56.5kg

I’ll be honest knackers, I’ve got no good reason why I put this in, I just wanted to get a country runner in for a change, and Kalgoorlie seems like a nuts joint, which is perfect with my state of mind!

Now, to end this pick, I will now provide an example of a False Statement.

FALSE STATEMENT IS HALF A CHANCE OF RUNNING IN THE TOP 3.

Thank you for your attention.

Enjoy your Saturday folks, stay safe, stay negative, KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE ROAD, and remember, I’m Crazy Craig, and that’s why they call me Craaaaaazy Craig!