The Top 8 may be decided, the Top 4 teams may be decided, but that hasn’t stopped us from getting set for one of the more enthralling final rounds in years given what we have at stake:

After 26 Rounds the New Zealand Warriors, pursuing their first J. J. Giltinan Shield since 2002, lead Penrith by just 1 point on Points Differential (+309 to +308) in the hunt for the minor premiership, which seemingly makes the Wahs’ game against Manly and the Panthers’ game against the Wests Tigers a simple case of score as many points as possible, and the Dolphins and Roosters are split by only 4 points (+152 to +148) in the hunt for 3rd place…

This does seem to be similar to how the 2018 minor premiership hunt ended, when the Melbourne Storm lost to Penrith on the Friday night, leaving the Roosters needing to win by at least 27 points against Parramatta on the Saturday night to win the J.J. Giltinan Shield, and the Roosters ultimately won 44-10 with a late flurry (5 tries in the last 20 minutes) to lock up the minor premiership, then won the premiership a month later.

Of course, if either of those pairings wind up finishing on the exact same Points Differential, the very rare tiebreaker of percentage (Points For/Points Against x 100) would be used, and if that happens the minor premiership would most likely go to Penrith, as percentage currently sits:

New Zealand (697/388 = 179.6%)

Penrith (645/337 = 191.4%)

And in the Dolphins vs Roosters case, there’s a very small gap to Easts:

Dolphins (638/486 = 131.3%)

Roosters (599/451 = 132.8%)

I think the last time I saw percentage used to decide top spot after any round was after the Good Friday game in 2019, when the Roosters defeated the Storm at AAMI Park in Golden Point, which left both teams on 5 wins and +59, but the Storm stayed ahead thanks to their superior defensive record (180.8 to 157.8)…

Another interesting fact – In the current NRL era, the percentage tiebreaker has only been applied ONCE, in 2018 when Penrith and Brisbane both recorded 32 points (15 wins, 9 defeats) and +56 in the race for 5th spot, and the tiebreaker went to Penrith by approximately 0.9% (112.1% to 111.2%), which proved fateful as the Broncos played the Dragons in the 6th vs 7th Elimination Final, got smashed by the Red V 48-18, and Wayne Bennett’s tenure at Red Hill concluded for the second and final time.

Fox Sports also worked it out that for both Penrith and the Warriors to finish on the same For/Against percentage, Penrith would have to win by approximately 59-57 (Allowing Wests to break the First Grade record for the greatest losing score) and the Warriors need to win 7-6…

As the 12th Man once said “Not an impossible task, but pretty ****in’ close to it.”

If that miracle does happen and gets recognised by The Vatican, the next tiebreakers (As confirmed by the NRL in 2014) after percentage are:

1. The team that has scored the most tries (NZ lead Penrith 121-110, Dolphins lead Roosters 110-107)
2. Total goals scored (NZ 106-102, Dolphins 99-84),
3. Field Goals (NZ-Penrith 1 apiece, Roosters 3-0 Dolphins)
4. Fewest penalties conceded (Penrith ahead 93-97 Dolphins 112-121)
5. Coin toss

In a way the fixture for this week is a blessing and a curse for the Panthers, because on the one hand you know exactly how much you need to win by, but on the other hand there’s a solid amount of pressure that would come if they need to put up a cricket score… which they’ve already done against Wests once this year.

On the other hand, I would surmise the chances of the Roosters passing the Dolphins are between zero, none and sweet f— all, because after Sam Walker suffered his season ending ankle injury and subsequent surgery, the Roosters have decided to pretty much call in the NSW Cup squad to take on Souths on Friday night, all but locking them in to 4th spot, so it seems Trent Robinson has decided to hedge his bets in case the Roosters have to travel to Auckland next week, or get lucky and get a Sydney final against the Riff.

And of course, I haven’t even mentioned the great race for 6th, as South Sydney, Newcastle and North Queensland are all on 32 competition points (Although the F/A totals are all massively spaced), but as alluded to previously it looks like Souths have pretty much been gifted 6th spot by their Foundation enemies from Bondi, which means the 2 points for Newcastle’s bye this weekend will be rendered irrelevant and pretty much lock them in for 7th, while the Cowboys get a tune-up in their home farewell against the Canberra Raiders before they return to Sydney to play Cronulla, and if that does happen they’ll have the coincidence of playing the Sharks in every year they’ve played in the Finals under Todd Payten, after the 2022 Golden Point thriller and the 2024 Semi Final.

Still, I’m sure Souths will love getting a win in JAI ARROW’S 100TH GAME!

Scenes that we may never see again, and another amazing fact from that game is that Wayne Bennett is on to record his 600th win as a First Grade coach (17 at Canberra in 1987, 402 with Brisbane, 51 with St George-Illawarra, 34 with Newcastle, 20 with the Dolphins, and currently 75 with Souths).

And now for the last time this Home & Away season, here’s the Succinct NRL Tips:

Round 26 Tips = 6/8

Round 26 progress score = 129/196 (65.8%)

And to the players who are playing their last games this week, even if they know it or don’t know it, here’s a musical tribute from Monty Python:

I was about to include Andrea Bocelli’s Time to Say Goodbye duet with Sarah Brightman , but it was far too sad for what should be an upbeat time in a young man’s life… so instead we have the most popular funeral song in Britain.