Starting off today’s review, it’s time to analyse that paragraph I wrote about the Lightning Stakes on Friday, because I think I held my own on this one:
“So as for a Lightning tip, I’m loathed to pick Bivouac considering his 1000m record isn’t great, and he tends to perform better 2nd Up than 1st Up, September Run is unproven at 1000m and Nature Strip is Nature Strip, so I’m dumb enough to suggest a horse like Swats That could run Top 3, which obviously means she’ll run 4th.”
Bivouac’s 1000m record isn’t great = He’s now 0/3 at the 1000m, the speed was a bit too hot for him fresh, and I suppose we’ll have to wait until he gets to 1200m.
Nature Strip is Nature Strip = He was Nature Strip alright, to the point that he turned around a Spring of outs and won the Lightning a year after going under in the race at $1.40…. That’s how good Jamie Kah’s going right now, she got bloody Nature Strip to act normally.
September Run is unproven at 1000m = 5 furlongs proved to be JUST too short for her, but holy moly, I’m backing her in the Newmarket without even thinking twice with the way she hit the line for 2nd.
But the big one….
Swats That could run Top 3 = SHE DIDN’T RUN 4TH, SHE RAN 3RD
$3.40 for a place at the jump… Naturally, just like suggesting Streets Of Avalon last week, I didn’t back Swats That and stuck my sheckles on Colette to place in the Apollo Stakes at $2.70….
Colette won at $12.
It turned out to be my only win of the day, after I got spooked by Coolth running 4th and kept the powder dry.
Ingratiating in the Talindert Stakes at Flemington – WINNER
I have a 2% strike rate for 2YO races, but, Enthaar form.
That’s all you needed to know.
A very visually pleasing win to see from the colt, and a classic Damien Oliver display of yelling a horse home with maximum vigour as the first starter Gimme Par flashed late at the end.
Now it remains to be seen if James Cummings will run Ingratiating in the Blue Diamond Stakes next week and gun for a rematch with Enthaar, because he is guaranteed a start at Caulfield, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Away Game in the Light Fingers Stakes at Randwick – 3rd
So here’s another lesson for you kids.
With the downgrade to a Soft 7 at Randwick, I backed Colette for a place (At $2.70) in the preceding Apollo Stakes, on the basis that she’s deadset dynamite on Wet tracks (I picked her in the Golden Eagle, true story), although I figured Verry Elleegant would win, given she’s a certified wet tracker, she had won a Group 1 at 1400m despite being a stayer, and had a very apparent class advantage.
The look on my face at the 200m as I realised Colette wasn’t just going to place, she was going to dry lick the Chris Waller brigade and win an open class race for the first time (At WFA nonetheless), although Verry Elleegant lost no admirers hitting the line for 3rd.
Anyway, in the Light Fingers I picked Away Game, whose wet track form was suspect at best (Although she does have a Heavy win), and it seemed to show in the run, because despite a game effort (Heck, she only went down by 3/4 of a length), the Magic Millions form just didn’t hold up, and WET TRACK FORM rose above in the form of Every Rose and Never Talk, who were just too good.
Case in point, Every Rose had her only win on a Soft track, and Never Talk was 1/1 on Soft, and 2/2 on Heavy.
In this case, Every Rose did not have a thorn.
Subedar in Race 9 at Randwick – SCRATCHED (On vet’s advice)
To be honest, I didn’t even check Race 9 at Randwick until they finished the Light Fingers (Race 8), and I noticed that Academy was the new favourite, which had me thinking that Subedar (Who I called Subedar) had been on the drift.
Turned out, he’d been scratched earlier in the morning on vet’s advice, contrary to my initial thought that he’d been part of the horde of late scratchings after the rain hit and downgraded the track to a Soft 7.
I’ll claim the sub rule doesn’t exist for this one, because Academy started favourite and got nutted on the line by Poetic Charmer after leading for 1298 of the 1300 metre race, in a chunder-inducing finish for people playing the favourite numbers.
Western Empire in the Challenge Stakes at Ascot – 3rd
Ultimately, both of the favourites did the Parnham brothers in – Western Empire was more interested in fighting Chris Parnham down the back straight, and just didn’t have the turn of foot on the corner and scrambled home to grab 3rd on the post, and Kissonallforcheeks got caught 3 wide no cover for Brad Parnham, and it told in the end when she loomed up ominously, but Solaia, after sitting on speed, simply had more in reserve and kicked clear to win the race.
To be honest, I didn’t see enough from Western Empire to suggest that he could be competitive in an Australian Guineas, and if you ask me, only a very confident person with a shitload of disposable income would dare take up that challenge.
Speaking of which, where is Bob Peters?
Crazy Craig’s Tip Of The Day
Coolth in Race 4 at Flemington – 4th (Effin’ Fourth Again!)
Of course the first 3 favourites win at Flemington, then we get to the 4th race, Coolth gets backed into 2/1….
And after being hard ridden on the turn, the favourite never looks like winning, and just to rub it in, misses 3rd place and money back by a bob of the nose after picking up late, and rubbing salt and pepper into my festering wounds, the bloody jumps horse Runaway trained by Gai Waterhouse wins at 2000m at 28/1, because apparently Gai Waterhouse hasn’t inflicted enough pain on the punting public of Australia.
Much to my disappointment, there would be no Lucky Lips today, although, as I detailed after last week’s disappointment, Crazy Craig informed me via relay from Mr Alfonse that he’s got something big planned for Blue Diamond Day next week, so on that note….
NEXT WEEK WILL BE ANOTHER ONE OUT CRAZY CRAIG PICK OF THE DAY IN PLACE OF THE CHALK EATERS.
WE’RE GETTING THE LUCKY LIPS BACK IN WINNING FORM, and as Sir Joh would say, don’t you worry about that!
Categories: Horse Racing