To think this is the closest the New Zealand Warriors have ever been to a Provan-Summons Trophy… same could be said for the Redcliffe Dolphins

He says while ignoring the 2 Grand Finals the Warriors played in decades ago.

So this is it, the first week of the 2026 Finals kicks off on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 Attacks, and I suppose I’ll put up a random anniversary of a First Grade Final, and it’s from September 11, 1994, the major semi final between Canterbury and Canberra, in front of a near sell-out crowd at the old SFS, and in a rare example of a Final going to extra time in the days before Golden Point, minor premiers Canterbury won the game 19-18 thanks to Darryl Halligan’s chip shot field goal with 1:45 to play, but the Raiders re-grouped, knocked out Norths in the Prelim and smoked the Bulldogs in the Grand Final a fortnight later.

Of course, Mal Meninga retired after that game, and the Raiders have barely troubled the scorers on Grand Final day since then.

Now, back into 2026, and the following teams now have the 50-point curse, automatically ruling them out of premiership contention:

1. Dolphins (Conceded 52 RD5 vs Manly and 66 R9 vs Cronulla)
2. Sydney Roosters (Conceded 50 RD27 vs Souths)
3. North Queensland Cowboys (Conceded 82 R22 vs Roosters and 50 R27 vs Raiders)

Which leaves you with 5 teams that can win the premiership – Penrith, New Zealand, Cronulla, Souths and Newcastle.

I believe what the Raiders did at the end of last season was definitive proof for the 50-point curse – Even if you concede 50 points in a dead rubber, you are CURSED.

And it cursed the Raiders so badly that they excruciatingly lost both finals and proceeded to plummet down the ladder in 2026…. a lesser man would’ve received a dismissal from his job, but not Ricky Stuart.

Now that said, on we go to Week One of the 2026 Finals, the first finals series since 2010 that doesn’t feature the Melbourne Storm, and the only the 4th finals series of the 21st Century (2001, 2002, 2010, 2026) that doesn’t feature the Melbourne Storm.

In fact, here’s another amazing stat – Every finals series of the NRL era has featured either the Melbourne Storm or the Sydney Roosters.

– Souths play Newcastle (6th vs 7th) at Allianz on the Friday night, only the second final between the teams after the 2020 Elimination Final that Souths romped away to win 46-20, and of course this’ll be just the second finals series Latrell Mitchell has played since he joined Souths in 2020, while the Knights come off the bye and get a few first choice guns back, namely Dominic Young, Phoenix Crossland and Tyson Frizell, and there’s some major focus on tryscorers, as Alex Johnston sits on 30 tries for the season after sharing the Ken Irvine Medal with Thomas Jenkins, needing a mere 8 tries in the Finals to reach Dave Brown’s record of 38 tries in a season, while Knights winger Greg Marzhew sits on 24 tries, needing 1 try to match Dominic Young’s club record from 2023… it’s worth noting Young won the Ken Irvine Medal that year, this year Marzhew is a distant 3rd.

Another couple of notes – Euan Aitken’s dream finals debut for Souths was ruined by a fractured scapula on Friday night in what was his 201st game, although he does still lag behind Luke Brooks who played a record 229 games (205 for Wests Tigers) before playing in an NRL Final for Manly in 2024, while the Knights’ last win in an away final was the 2013 Semi Final against the Melbourne Storm, and their last win in a Sydney final was the 2013 Elimination Final against Canterbury.

– Saturday afternoon/evening sees history at Mt Smart as the New Zealand Warriors host the Dolphins (2nd vs 3rd) in the Queenslanders’ inaugural NRL Finals appearance, which marks the first time since the Gold Coast Titans in 2009 that a team is playing in their maiden final, while the Warriors play a final at Mt Smart for only the 6th time in their history, with a shot at a historic Preliminary Final in New Zealand up for grabs… although where on earth they’d play that game nobody knows, because there was a story that it might be at Eden Park to get a bigger crowd, even though the Warriors haven’t played at Eden Park since 2014 (That said they will play 2 games there in 2027, one of them on ANZAC Day), whereas we know the Dolphins will absolutely play a home Prelim at Suncorp, very similar to what happened to the Gold Coast Titans in 2010, who funnily enough defeated the Warriors to get that Prelim Final.

Random notes for this one – The last time a team won their maiden NRL Finals appearance was St George-Illawarra in 1999 when they defeated the Melbourne Storm in Melbourne, while Jamayne Isaako is within 12 points of becoming the fourth player in First Grade history to score 300 points in an NRL season, the others being Hazem El Masri (2004), Brett Hodgson (2005) and Reuben Garrick (2021).

– Saturday night sees Cronulla and North Queensland (5th vs 8th) meet in an NRL Final for the 7th time in the 21st Century (Currently 3-3 on the H2H), and despite the wishes of the Sharks the NRL have moved the game from Shark Park to Allianz Stadium in an effort to avoid having anyone killed by a falling grandstand at Shark Park, and from what I’ve seen of these teams since August you may as well eliminate both of them tomorrow, because the Cowboys can leak points like nobody’s business, as evidenced by the Raiders carving them up like a Christmas ham last weekend, and the Sharks have lost 4 out of their last 5 and fell from a massive dark horse at the start of August to looking like an also-ran, compared to last year when they finished 5th off the back of a great run of form and made the Preliminary Final.

Random notes for this one – The Cowboys keep up their streak of making the finals in every even-numbered year under Todd Payten (2022, 2024, 2026) while always missing the odd-numbered years, while the Sharks have only won 4 out of 15 finals matches since winning the 2016 premiership, 3 of them coming in the last 2 seasons.

– And the lucky last game sees the minor premiers Penrith playing the 4th placed Sydney Roosters at Commbank Stadium, and in the first year of Penrith’s exile away from Penrith Stadium they end up with a home final at Parramatta’s fancy home, which will also mark the first final to be played at Commbank since the Eels played Canberra in a Semi Final in 2022, while the Roosters decided to rest half the team last week and subsequently condemned themselves to the 50-point curse, all in a desperate bid to avoid playing the Warriors in New Zealand, which kind of makes sense from their end because they managed to knock off Penrith not even a month ago, although this time around Sam Walker will be missing, leaving Hugo Savala to play five-eighth and partner Daly Cherry-Evans against Nathan Cleary and Jack Cole… I’d imagine Savala will be half a chance of getting the No.7 for Easts next year, considering Walker has just about played his last game for the club as he tests free agency and DCE is off to the Super League retirement village in Hull… grim stuff, most people decide to get the hell out of Yorkshire before they retire.

Random notes for this one – The Panthers have won 4 out of the 5 finals between the teams (2003 GF, 2014 QF, 2020 QF, 2024 QF), with the Roosters’ only win being the 2010 Semi Final, and the Roosters have only won 3 out of 12 finals matches since winning the 2019 premiership.

And now, the Tips for Week One of the Finals:

Round 27 Tips = 4/8

Round 27 progress score = 133/204 (65.2%)

And this week’s random celebration… Sunday will mark what would’ve been Shane Warne’s 57th birthday!

I believe that was during his diet smokes phase.